WNBA 2024 playoff predictions: can Caitlin Clark lead the Fever to a shock title?

What I’m most looking forward to

Obviously there is a large contingent of fervent, passionate WNBA fans that are not new to this whatsoever. But I’m looking forward to the first WNBA playoffs when the rest of the sports world has finally caught up: high-profile national TV coverage, dramatic storylines, podcast hand-wringing – it should all be there this time around. And it’s about time. CDL

The semi-final showdown between the Liberty and the Aces. This year’s clash of the superteams (and rematch of last year’s WNBA finals) will come one stage earlier than expected after Las Vegas slipped to the fourth seed following an up-and-down regular season, but count out A’ja Wilson and the two-time defending champions at your peril. BAG

At this point, thanks to the ABSOLUTELY UNHINGED behavior of the Phoenix Mercury’s social media team, seeing 42-year-old Diana Taurasi take part in what appears to be her final postseason. SK

Minnesota playing spoiler. The Lynx went a blistering 13-1 after the Olympic break, the league’s hottest streak by far. That includes a nine-point win over top seed New York just a few weeks ago. While Minnesota aren’t what they were at their peak when Maya Moore, Seimone Augustus and crew were dominating the league, the 2024 team have become a formidable force in their own right with All-Stars Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride. AL

Caitlin Clark is …

… primed to play spoiler. She’s a downright revelation, who came into the league with an astronomical amount of hype that she has somehow managed to rise to (and then some). She had a rough start to the year, understandable with so little time between the NCAA tournament and WNBA training camp. But she’s hit her stride, and while the lower seed Fever are underdogs against the formidable Sun, they’re prime candidates to crash the second-round party. CDL

… somehow managing to exceed expectations. Be honest: when the Fever stumbled to a 1-8 start with an exhausted Clark doling out turnovers like Halloween candy, it was hard to imagine the sort of turnaround that came to pass. But they’ve been one of the WNBA’s hottest teams since the Olympic break behind their rejuvenated rookie star, finishing with more wins (20) than Indiana’s past two seasons combined (18). BAG

… so fun! I unapologetically stan. It has been incredible to see the sport’s astronomical growth and it’s impossible to deny that Clark is a major part of the reason why. She is a generational talent like Leslie, Swoopes, Bird, Taurasi, Parker, Moore and Wilson. She’s amazing. SK

… the Tim Tebow of women’s hoops. Everyone has an opinion and will express it whether they watch the game or not. No doubt she has the once-hapless Fever well positioned for a deep run. It’s just … I’m not really trying to hear all the complaining if she doesn’t win it all in year one. AL

High seed at risk of going out early

Speaking of the Connecticut Sun, they’re my pick for most vulnerable high seed. They’re playoff battle-tested and a well-oiled machine with an impressive defense. In theory, they should be able to handle a young and playoff-green Fever. But I know better than to bet against Caitlin Clark when the stakes are highest. CDL

This time last year the Las Vegas Aces were looking like the one of the best teams we’ve ever seen in men’s or women’s basketball, at least since the KD Warriors. But since then, their defensive efficiency has slipped back into the pack while once-manageable depth issues have cost them. Their biggest problem? Sending six players to the Olympics, including the core four of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum, creating a fatigue factor that threatens to doom their three-peat bid.

I don’t see how it could be possible but … the Aces?! I mean this is Wilson’s world that we are all just living in and they are by far my favorite team to watch, but the Sun and Lynx are not playing around and it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Liberty fumble this opportunity. SK

The Connecticut Sun, who have the misfortune of opening their playoff campaign against the resurgent Fever. Among other things, they’re not going to get away with guarding Clark as aggressively as they did to start the season. For one thing, she’s adjusted. For another, she’s the franchise. AL

Long shot to win

It’s hard to call the defending champs (two years running, at that) a “long shot” to win it all, but the Las Vegas Aces are certainly not heading into the postseason as favorites. That being said, early-season struggles aside, they have a superweapon in A’ja Wilson: someone who is not only the clear MVP of the league, but who is having one of the greatest individual seasons in modern basketball history. If the Liberty meet the Aces in the second round (as I’d expect), they’re in for a hell of a fight.

Seattle Storm. If Jewell Loyd is fully recovered from her knee injury and the Storm can get through a best-of-three first-round series with a Vegas side that looks as vulnerable as they have in years, their reward is a date with the top-seeded Liberty. But any team with Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith in the fold will be a tough out. BAG

I need to preface this by saying I don’t think it will happen, but I think it’s what the people want to hear: the Indiana Fever win it all. SK

Atlanta Dream. They were the luckiest of the losers, arguably sneaking into the playoffs only because Angel Reese fell injured before finishing her maiden season in Chicago. The Dream don’t lack for talent – not least former center Tina Charles, who’s been there and won a title and a league MVP. What’s more, the Dream have been giving teams fits all year. If they should somehow manage to take a pair off New York in that perilously short first-round series, watch out. AL

Most important player this postseason

Napheesa Collier will not win MVP, because her competitor is Wilson, who will rightfully win the award, maybe unanimously. But Napheesa is absolutely having an MVP caliber season, and it’s largely on the back of that that I think (spoiler) the Lynx are the team to beat this postseason.

Chelsea Gray. The point guard’s return from an injury suffered during last year’s WNBA finals sparked the Aces’ early-summer turnaround. Wilson is going do her thing on both ends of the court. But if Vegas are going to flip the switch for the playoffs and reassert their defensive identity, Gray will need to do all the things that make life easier for Plum and Young. BAG

A’ja Wilson, A’ja Wilson, A’ja Wilsonnnnn. SK

Chelsea Gray. She makes the Aces go, and they struggled for momentum while she was out with a foot injury suffered during last year’s title run. But now that the “point gawd” is back at the helm, the Aces are firmly back on course to three-peat. AL

One bold prediction

There are (loud) rumors that this is WNBA legend Diana Taurasi’s last stand, and it would be shocking, but also awesomely poetic, if the “White Mamba” capped off her legendary WNBA career in true Kobe fashion by dropping 60 in her last outing (I’m almost certain her Phoenix Mercury will not be making it out of the first round). I’m willing it to be so. CDL

The Aces get swept out of the East semis. They just won’t have enough left in the tank. BAG

The Fever make a mad rush and knock out the Sun early on or Diana Taurasi doesn’t get a single technical foul the entire playoffs. SK

At some point, either Kamala or Tim Walz drops in – especially if the finals wind up back in a battleground state or Minnesota make a deep run. AL

Playoff semi-finalists

New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever CDL

New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Connecticut Sun BAG

New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces (I told you I didn’t believe it), Minnesota Lynx, Connecticut Sun SK

New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever AL

The champion will be …

Minnesota Lynx. If history has taught us anything, it’s that much of playoff success hinges on getting hot at the right time. Sure, the Liberty sailed through most of the regular season as, comfortably, the best team in the league. But of late, that best team has been Minnesota. They have a gorgeous, unselfish offensive philosophy, one of the best coaches in WNBA history in Reeve, and a bona fide MVP candidate in Collier. For months it felt like it was finally the Liberty’s time. But the Lynx are here, and they have other plans. CDL

Minnesota Lynx. Collier and co have been white hot since the Olympic break, winning 13 of 14 games before resting their stars in Thursday’s regular-season finale, behind a suffocating team defense that has largely overshadowed their stylish, democratic play on the offensive end. Drawn on the opposite side of the bracket as New York and Las Vegas, they’ll have as manageable a road they could dream of for record fifth WNBA title. BAG

New York Liberty, full stop. After last year’s near miss, this postseason is theirs to lose. After getting past the Aces it will come down to a best-of-five against the Lynx, where Stewie, Jonquel, Sabrina and co will deliver NYC their first basketball championship in more than five decades. SK

Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx are booming, balanced and coached by the game’s all-time greats in Reeve, who’s already led USA Basketball to gold this summer. When she’s on a roll, I don’t bet against her – especially now that seedings have pitted last year’s finalists on the opposite side of the draw. AL