Jaguars vs. Bills Predictions | Opta Analyst

A slew of personnel changes hasn’t prevented the Buffalo Bills from picking up right where they left the 2023 regular season off.

The same can be said for their next opponent, much to the Jacksonville Jaguars’ dismay.

While the Bills are on the early track towards another January of postseason football, the Jaguars will be playing what can realistically be viewed as a playoff game in September when they enter Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park for a Week 3 Monday Night Football showdown.

Jacksonville makes its first ESPN MNF appearance since Week 13 of last season – a 34-31 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals that it still hasn’t recovered from. That defeat started a 1-5 finish (and the lone win came against the hapless Carolina Panthers) to the 2023 campaign that kept the Jaguars out of the playoffs despite an 8-3 start.

That free fall also triggered an offseason spending spree of nearly $155 million in free agency that included two former Bills in wide receiver Gabe Davis and center Mitch Morse.

The Jags have yet to see a return on that investment, as close losses to the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns have created a near must-win scenario for a team owner Shad Khan touted as the most talented in franchise history heading into Week 1.

Though there’s still plenty of time left for a turnaround, history isn’t on Jacksonville’s side. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020, the 2022 Bengals and 2023 Houston Texans – the beneficiary of the Jaguars’ collapse last season – are the only two to make the postseason out of 32 teams that began 0-2. That’s a success rate of 6.3%.

Should the Jaguars lose again this week, it’s far, far more likely they’ll be spending January mulling major organizational changes as opposed to preparing for playoff games. There have been 120 teams since 1999 that started 0-3 and only one, the 2018 Texans, advanced to the postseason.

The odds aren’t in Jacksonville’s favor for Monday’s matchup either, as our projection model’s NFL picks include the Jaguars only having a 32.4% chance of defeating a proven Buffalo team that co-owns the NFL’s best record in September games since 2019.

BEST RECORDS IN SEPTEMBER GAMES SINCE 2019

• 14-4 – Buffalo Bills                          
• 14-4 – Kansas City Chiefs             
• 12-5 – San Francisco 49ers      
• 13-6 – Green Bay Packers    
• 12-6 – Seattle Seahawks       
• 12-6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers     

The 2-0 Bills also have the longest active winning streak in regular-season games, having ripped off seven consecutive victories dating back to Week 14 of 2023.

The four-time defending AFC East champions may have also knocked out – literally – one of the main challengers to their throne with last week’s 31-10 rout of Miami, a game marred by yet another concerning concussion to Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Jacksonville may be able to get a needed confidence boost from their last meeting with the Bills, however. The Jaguars handed Buffalo a 25-20 loss in London in October behind a sharp 315-yard, interception-free outing from Trevor Lawrence, a performance the $275 million quarterback has often had trouble duplicating during his team’s extended slump.

The Jaguars need Trevor Lawrence to succeed, and a game plan that will help him do it.

The underdog Jaguars usually go how Lawrence goes, as they’re 8-2 since the start of last season when he puts up a passer rating of 90 or better and 0-8 when he’s below that mark. And unfortunately for the Duval County faithful, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t been going too well of late.

Lawrence has lost his last seven starts (he missed last season’s NFL Week 17 win over the Panthers due to injury), and his numbers over the past six – a 57.9% completion rate, eight touchdown passes against seven interceptions and a 76.0 passer rating – certainly haven’t been befitting of a franchise quarterback.

The Jaguars’ prolonged offensive struggles and inability to get into the red zone consistently also aren’t all Lawrence’s fault. His subpar adjusted completion percentage of 55.3 through the first two NFL games would be a whole lot higher if not for the league-high six passes his receivers have dropped.

HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF DROPPED CATCHABLE PASSES

1. 18.8% – Jacksonville Jaguars   
2. 11.6% – New York Giants            
3. 10.3% – Indianapolis Colts      
4. 9.8% – New York Jets            
5. 8.9% – Seattle Seahawks                

And Lawrence has generally had to make more difficult throws than his peers in an offense that’s seemingly fallen in love with the downfield pass. His 11.77 air yards per attempt thus far is the second highest of any quarterback, behind only Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson.

Airing it out downfield may not be the way to go against the Bills, who’ve allowed a mere five completions on 21 opponent attempts of 11.0 air yards or more (23.8%) and have picked off two of those throws through the first two weeks.

Buffalo’s outside cornerback tandem of emerging star Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas has been stout. Benford is fifth in the league in burn-allowed rate (22.2%) among corners with at least six defensive targets, while Douglas is tied for 15th (33.3%).

The Bills defense is much more vulnerable underneath, though, as opponents have completed 83.7% of their attempts of 10.0 air yards or less thus far. And when factoring in that Buffalo will be without its two best every-down linebackers, Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, in addition to trusty slot corner Taron Johnson, a short-range game plan seems to be the Jaguars’ best method of attack.

Jacksonville would be well-equipped to exploit that perceived weakness if Evan Engram, who led all tight ends with 40-plus targets last season in open percentage (89.5), were healthy. He’s not, however, as a hamstring injury will likely force him to miss a second straight game.

Jaguars Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Trevor Lawrence: 23.2 completions on 35.4 attempts for 258.4 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.7 INTs
• Travis Etienne Jr.: 16.0 rushes for 69.0 yards with 0.4 TDs; 4.4 receptions for 31.6 yards
• Gabe Davis: 4.1 receptions for 56.1 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Brian Thomas Jr.: 4.0 receptions for 53.4 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Christian Kirk: 4.2 receptions for 55.3 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Brenton Strange: 3.9 receptions for 36.7 yards with 0.2 touchdowns

The Jaguars may be able to take advantage of Johnson’s absence, however, if rookie Brian Thomas Jr. can continue to emerge and former Arizona Cardinal Christian Kirk can rediscover the form that made him among the league’s better slot receivers the past few years.

Kirk is off to a brutal start, having caught just two of seven targets with two drops through the first two weeks, but his track record states he’s capable of far better. He posted a combined burn rate of 66.4% and an open percentage of 80.7 over the previous two seasons, considerably above the league average in both categories, and was a factor in last year’s London win over the Bills with six catches totaling 78 yards on eight targets.

The Jaguars also got a huge game out of Travis Etienne in that victory, as the playmaking running back rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. He’s another valuable piece Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor can utilize to help ease the burden on Lawrence and an offensive line that’s surrendered the second-highest sack rate per passing play (11.5%) this season and ranks 27th overall in pressure-allowed rate (47.5%).

How well the line protects Lawrence could also go a long way in determining whether the Jags can avoid a dreaded 0-3 start, as he was one of the league’s least accurate quarterbacks under pressure last season and was far more prone to turnovers when facing heat.

Lawrence produced a low pickable pass percentage of 2.50 when not pressured in 2023, but that number rose to 6.56 under duress.

LOWEST EXPECTED COMPLETION% UNDER PRESSURE IN 2023 (Min. 50 Adjusted Attempts)

1. 54.3% – Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars          
2. 54.6% – Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots             
3. 55.2% – Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams          
4. 55.9% – Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts       
5. 56.4% – Will Levis, Tennessee Titans             

James Cook has become the Bills’ most important offensive player other than Josh Allen, as Buffalo is leaning more and more on its running game.

Buffalo’s numerous roster revisions received plenty of fanfare during the offseason, but it’s a more subtle change the team made midway through last season that has helped the Bills sustain their usual high standard of success.

Since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator 10 games into the 2023 season, the Bills have morphed into one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams.

Though that philosophy may lead to some head-scratching considering Buffalo has an elite quarterback in Josh Allen, it’s actually a very sensible strategy when taking a further look.

The Bills are 54-9 since the start of the 2019 season when rushing for 100 yards or more, with that .857 winning percentage trailing only the mighty Kansas City Chiefs for tops in the league over that span. When Buffalo has failed to hit the century mark in rushing yards during that period, it’s gone 6-15.

And as great as Allen has been over the years, the Bills have been tougher to beat when they’ve put less on his plate. Including playoff games, Buffalo has been barely over a .500 team (32-28) when Allen attempts 33 or more passes in his career. The Bills are 38-7 when he’s thrown 32 times or less, and one of those defeats came in a meaningless NFL season finale in which he was pulled after two drives. 

A main reason why the Bills lost to the Jaguars in London last season was because they couldn’t run the ball at all. The offense mustered a paltry 29 rushing yards on 14 carries that day, Buffalo’s lowest output on the ground in a game since 2014.

Bills Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Josh Allen: 23.6 completions on 35.9 attempts for 268.0 with 1.6 TDs and 0.7 INTs; 43.4 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing TDs
• James Cook: 12.5 rushes for 59.7 yards with 0.3 TDs
• Khalil Shakir: 3.6 receptions for 57.3 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Keon Coleman: 3.5 receptions, 38.3 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Dalton Kincaid: 4.5 receptions for 48.9 yards with 0.3 touchdowns

Allen kept the Bills in it by throwing for 359 yards with touchdown passes to Davis and Stefon Diggs, both of whom eclipsed the 100-yard mark that afternoon. But Diggs is now in Houston and Davis will be making his Highmark Stadium return this week in a Jacksonville uniform, and their replacements are either largely unproven (rookie Keon Coleman and breakout candidate Khalil Shakir) or underwhelming (journeyman Mack Hollins). 

That attrition at the wide receiver spots has increased James Cook’s significance in Brady’s offense, and the speedy running back was certainly up to the challenge in last week’s blowout of the Dolphins. Cook contributed 78 rushing yards while averaging better than 7 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns, one as a receiver and another on a back-breaking 49-yard run in the second quarter.

Despite his smallish size, Cook does most of his damage as an inside runner who quickly finds holes behind a pile-moving offensive line that’s provided him a healthy 3.33 yards before contact through the first two games.

Neutralizing the inside run needs to be a point of emphasis for a Jacksonville defense which did mostly a solid job containing two good rushing teams in the Dolphins and Browns through the opening two weeks. 

The Jaguars have allowed 3.2 yards per attempt on runs up the middle thus far, the 11th-best mark in the league, and just one of those 25 carries resulted in a gain beyond 10 yards.

The Jaguars’ strength is a pass rush headed by their own Josh Allen, or Josh Hines-Allen after the 2023 Pro Bowler changed his name over the summer. His game hasn’t changed, though, as he’s racked up an impressive 12.5 pressures over the first two weeks to anchor a quality defensive line that’s produced the fourth-highest pressure rate at 46.8%.

Getting the Bills in obvious passing situations where it can unleash Hines-Allen, edge mate Travon Walker and big-ticket offseason signing Arik Armstead should play to Jacksonville’s advantage, so it’s important it keeps Buffalo’s improving rushing attack in check.

And considering their ongoing troubles on offense, this probably isn’t a game the Jags want to turn into a track meet. 

Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!