My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 3

Sep 16, 2024, 12:30 PM ET

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features a plethora of interesting matchups and divisional tilts. The week starts off on Thursday night with an AFC East battle between the New England Patriots and New York Jets from MetLife Stadium.

On Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys look to bounce back from a disappointing defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, welcoming the Baltimore Ravens to Arlington. In the Sunday night prime-time game, Patrick Mahomes and the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta.

Monday night features the first prime-time doubleheader of the season as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and rookie Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders face Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+).

Our betting analysts take an early look at Week 3 lines to find some value before things move closer to the games.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals–Detroit Lions over 52.5 points (-105)

I earmarked Arizona as an early season “over” team in August based on the most rudimentary analysis imaginable: Good offense, bad defense. Well, through two games, Kyler Murray & Co. are 2-0 to the over. Look for Detroit’s offense to bounce back in a big way after scoring just 16 points on 463 total yards of offense in Week 2. But that’s what happens when you go 1-for-7 in the red zone. Expect some positive regression in that department.

Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Cleveland Browns–New York Giants under 38.5 points (-110)

I can see this total dropping a point or two so I want to jump on it now. The Giants are averaging just 12.0 PPG this season and Daniel Jones has looked less than impressive. Now, they get one of the toughest assignments in football, facing the Browns defense in Cleveland. On the other side, Deshaun Watson isn’t much better. The Giants have a formidable enough defensive line to help keep him in check. This profiles as an ugly game in Cleveland where the winning team likely only needs 17-20 points.

Anita Marks and Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) vs. Denver Broncos

The Bucs have started the season strong, beating the Washington Commanders by 17 points and pulling off a huge upset against the Lions on the road with a banged up secondary. Baker Mayfield is showing why he was selected No. 1 overall in 2018, tossing 5 TDs, and only one INT through two games. Rookie QB Bo Nix and the 0-2 Broncos head to Tampa with just 1 TD this season, coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I would jump on this number now before it moves to 7.5. — Marks

The Buccaneers’ potent offense, led by Baker Mayfield (tied for first with five touchdowns, second in yards per attempt), puts the Broncos in a likely play-from-behind situation. Can rookie quarterback Bo Nix keep pace? The answer is a resounding no. Nix is struggling with reading and reacting to NFL defenses. His performance reflects that, having yet to throw a touchdown pass with four interceptions in two games. The Broncos also rank 29th in third-down conversions. Denver’s offensive inefficiency makes it challenging for them to keep up with Tampa Bay’s scoring. — Maldonado

Ben Solak’s first bet: New England Patriots (+6.5) at New York Jets

Through two weeks, the Patriots’ formula has been as expected: play stifling defense, run the football well, and keep games close. With a turnover or a lucky bounce, you might even win it. As such, getting almost a full touchdown against the Jets is too good to pass up. The Jets’ offensive line hasn’t been as good as expected after the revamp, and their run defense has question marks as well. Expect the Patriots to win in the trenches and make this rock fight land within 6.5 points.

Seth Walder’s first bet: New York Giants (+7) at Cleveland Browns

Listen, I’m no believer in the Giants (though they were quite possibly a healthy kicker away from winning in Week 2) and I’ve long been complimentary of the Cleveland roster overall. But getting a full seven points from any team with a serious weakness at quarterback sure seems like too many. And that’s exactly what Deshaun Watson is at this point: a serious weakness. Entering the Sunday night game, Watson ranks second-to-last in QBR ahead of only Bryce Young.

Andre Snellings first bet: New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-110)

The Saints have been, by far, the most impressive team in the NFL through two weeks. Their +62 scoring differential is 27 points better than the second-best differential in the league, and it’s even more absurd when you factor in that a good chunk of it came on the road against a presumed elite Dallas Cowboys team. New Orleans has vaulted up to sixth in the FPI rankings and are currently projected by FPI as 0.5-point favorites over the Eagles in Week 3 with a 50.6% likelihood to win. Those numbers could change after Philadelphia plays on Monday night, but that also means that the Eagles will be facing the Saints, on the road, after a short week. I’ll take this Saints squad with the points.

My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 3