Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions | Opta Analyst

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the toast of the NFL for a half-decade, playing in four of the last five Super Bowls.

The only AFC team to stop them during that stretch? The Cincinnati Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 3-1 in his career against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, including a 27-24 win in the AFC championship game following the 2021 NFL season, setting the stage for a rivalry between the two star quarterbacks.

Kansas City, however, has won its last two meetings against Cincinnati (Jake Browning started for the Bengals in NFL Week 17 last season) and has claimed consecutive Super Bowl titles since that playoff loss.

Cincinnati will attempt to make this matchup a rivalry once again when it visits GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday afternoon (on CBS).

The Bengals have not started the 2024 campaign well, opening with a baffling 16-10 home loss to the New England Patriots. That upset only intensified the worries that loomed over Cincinnati this offseason.

Star receiver Ja’Marr Chase was underwhelming in Week 1 after missing all of training camp to gain leverage in contract negotiations and No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins isn’t likely to return from a hamstring injury in Week 2. Burrow, who was on a pitch count in training camp after recovering from a wrist injury, had just 164 passing yards on 29 attempts in the opener.

Burrow was seen flexing his wrist during the game but told reporters this week that the injury recovery was “absolutely not” affecting his ability to throw.

“It feels better this week than it did last week, than it did the week before, so it’s continually getting better,” Burrow told reporters. “That’s part of ligament injuries. If you don’t move it, you’re going to lose it, so I’m always moving it around, keeping it loose, keeping my mobility the way it’s supposed to be, so it’s going to continue to happen.”

The Chiefs, on the other hand, got off to a dream start with a 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC championship game rematch on Thursday night of Week 1.

With the core of Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid on a quest to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, it was a newcomer who stole the show last week.

Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy flashed his record-breaking speed to score a pair of touchdowns on just three offensive touches, adding some explosiveness to an offense that was a bit methodical last season.

Plays of 10+ Yards in Week 1

• 17 – Kansas City Chiefs
• 16 – San Francisco 49ers
• 15 – Houston Texans
• 15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, however, was not impressed by Worthy’s debut.

“He can run straight – run jet sweeps and just run straight. He can’t do too much else, so that’s about it,” Taylor-Britt told reporters this week.

“He’s only a hundred-something pounds. If you put hands on him, you’re going to stop his speed. So basically get your hands on him.”

Worthy, who is listed at 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, broke the NFL combine record in the 40-yard dash by running it in 4.21 seconds.

With Worthy’s big-play potential adding to the Chiefs’ reliable offense, Kansas City was one of three teams without a three-and-out in Week 1.

That offensive production is a big reason why the Chiefs are favored by 6.0 points in most sportsbooks’ NFL picks. And our projection model agrees they’re the best bets, giving Kansas City a 71.0% chance of improving to 2-0 (as of Friday).

According to SmartRatings, this is the top-ranked game on Sunday-Monday portion of the Week 2 slate in terms of watchability. The excitement model is powered by algorithms that are predicated upon six variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

KC’s Key: Get the Run Game Going

Mahomes gets most of the attention in Kansas City – and for good reason. Now in his seventh season as the starter, he’s a two-time MVP and a three-time champion, winning with teams employing a variety of styles.

He leads the NFL in passing EVE (efficiency vs. expected) through the first two weeks of this season, but he finished with career lows in both yards per attempt and passer rating in 2023 when he ended up with 27 touchdowns and a career-high 14 interceptions.

Without a true No. 1 wide receiver, the offense shifted to a more balanced attack. Mahomes was still effective, leading the NFL with a 76.2 expected completion percentage, but Kansas City was able to lean a bit more on the ground game last year.

Even after the emergence of Rashee Rice (seven catches, 103 receiving yards in Week 1) and the addition of Worthy, the Chiefs are at their best when they run the ball. Since Mahomes’ first year as the starter, they’re an NFL-best 45-7 when rushing for 100 or more yards. 

Highest Win% With 100+ Rushing Yards (Since 2018)

1.   .865 – Kansas City Chiefs (45-7)
2.   .822 – Buffalo Bills (60-13)
3.   .792 – Pittsburgh Steelers (37-9-2)
4.   .769 – Dallas Cowboys (50-15)
5.   .762 – New Orleans Saints (48-15)

With Isiah Pacheco emerging as a feature back, he could be the key to the Chiefs’ chances against Cincinnati.

Pacheco had 15 carries for just 45 yards in the opener, with his longest carry gaining just 5 yards. But there is reason to believe he could be much more productive in Week 2.

Pacheco’s powerful running style left him tied for third in the NFL with 15 broken tackles last season, and his 2.62 yards per carry before contact were above the NFL average of 2.38.

Chiefs Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Patrick Mahomes: 25.5 of 38.0 for 279.5 yards with 1.8 TDs and 0.8 INTs
• Isiah Pacheco: 17.3 rushes for 73.0 yards with 0.8 touchdowns
• Rashee Rice: 6.6 receptions for 83.5 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
• Xavier Worthy: 3.1 receptions, 36.9 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Travis Kelce: 5.2 receptions for 55.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns

Cincinnati’s defense allowed 3.1 yards per carry before contact last season – the second-worst mark in the league – and the Bengals were last in run success rate allowed at 40.7%.

After allowing 170 yards on the ground in Week 1, Cincy’s run defense again appears to be a weakness and Pacheco could get up and have a get-right NFL game after his slow start.

Cincy’s Key: Make Open-Field Tackles

Cincinnati’s offense was a disaster in the loss to the Patriots. Not only did the Bengals gain just 224 net yards, but they also lost two fumbles after having just 16 turnovers all last season.

Due to the status of Burrow’s wrist, it is difficult to forecast a massive turnaround in Week 2.

After ranking 26th in run success rate last season at 31.9%, the ground game did gain a little bit of traction with Zack Moss gaining 4.9 yards per carry in the opener. However, the offense can only reach its potential once Burrow is healthy and confident.

Bengals Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Joe Burrow: 24.5 of 36.6 for 236.6 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs
• Zack Moss: 14.7 rushes for 57.2 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
• Ja’Marr Chase: 6.0 receptions for 64.9 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Andrei Iosivas: 4.7 receptions, 35.5 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Mike Gesicki: 2.0 receptions for 16.9 yards with 0.3 touchdowns

While fixing their fumbling problem is an obvious area for improvement on offense, Cincinnati’s defense may need to step up its tackling to make the difference.

Since Tyreek Hill left Kansas City, the Chiefs’ passing offense has relied heavily on yards after the catch. Kansas City led the NFL by a wide margin in YAC last season.

It will be crucial for the Bengals to make tackles after the catch – a task they struggled with last season.

Cincinnati ranked 23rd in the league by allowing 5.7 yards of YAC per reception last year. Only 62 times did the Bengals tackle the receiver at or behind the point of the catch – tied for 25th.

If Cincy can contain KC’s receivers, limit big plays and force the Chiefs to kick field goals, they could hang in a close game.

If the Chiefs get their running game going, however, they could control the game and take occasional shots at big plays with their young wide receivers.

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