What the Aces Must Do to Secure the Three-Peat » Winsidr

As the Las Vegas Aces stand on the precipice of securing a historic three-peat, the stakes have never been higher. With their back-to-back WNBA championships in 2022 and 2023 solidifying their dominance, the team faces the formidable challenge of maintaining their elite performance heading into the 2024 playoffs. By analyzing their statistical performance from the past two playoffs and contrasting it with their current numbers, it’s clear that adjustments will be required while their core strengths remain pivotal. To complete their quest for a third consecutive title, the Aces must refine their strategies, bolster their defense, and adapt to the evolving dynamics of the league, all while leveraging the experience and resilience that brought them their previous successes. 

For some time now, the Aces have operated with the luxury of having their core locked up at reasonably team-friendly deals. This means the comparisons made are fairly apt because the core roster has been stable and can at least provide us some insight into where they need to be to accomplish the task.

Maintaining Their Scoring Prowess

The Aces have had a dominant offense for the past half-decade. In the 2022 playoffs, they were second in points per game (PPG) and first in field goal percentage (FG%). In 2023, they were first and second, respectively. Put simply, to win a championship, you have to shoot at a high clip and score a lot of points—I know, revolutionary stuff. In 2024, the Aces are first in PPG and FG%. The Aces score 86.9 PPG on 45.4 percent shooting. Other than the 2022 field goal percentage, those numbers would be the highest in the group and highlight a team, led by all-everything A’ja Wilson, that can score and shoot effectively enough to win the championship again.

For the more analytically inclined, their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and true shooting percentage (TS%) are ranked third and first, respectively this season. In the ‘22 playoffs, they were first in both, and in ‘23, second in eFG% and first in TS%. The Aces are primed for another repeat, assuming they can clean up one more offensive dimension.

Improve The Three-Point Shooting

While scoring from deep isn’t a requirement for a championship, it certainly doesn’t hurt. Three-point scoring is a momentum builder and demonstrative of effective spacing that can only improve offensive efficiency. In today’s modern offense, it plays an integral role in offensive execution. In the 2022 playoffs, the Aces were third in three-point percentage (3PT%) at 38.1 percent. In 2023, they were also third at 36.0 percent. For the 2024 season, they are fifth at 34.5 percent. This is certainly not a bad number, but to ensure an even higher probability of success, the Aces could stand to improve from deep. That improvement could come from guards Kelsey Plum, who is shooting a career-low 35.0 percent from three in 2024, and Chelsea Gray, who is shooting 33.3 percent.

Pacing the Pack

For a team that adores the quick pace in the regular season, the Aces change their scheme come playoffs. During the 2022 regular season, the Aces were first in pace, but fifth during the postseason. In 2023, they were second in pace during the season, then fourth in the playoffs. This season? They are again leaders in the infamous pace category, ranking first at 97.92. Can the pattern hold as the Aces adjust to a grinding style of playoffs play will be something to watch as the postseason nears.

Continued Improvement Defensively

Anyone who has spoken with or been around Becky Hammon knows she will look past every offensive accomplishment if the defense isn’t following suit. Hammon approaches coaching with a defense-first mentality, noting disciplined, championship-caliber squads rise to the occasion through exceptional defensive execution. In the 2022 playoffs, the Aces were third in defensive rating (DRTG) and were first in the 2023 playoffs. Their defense improved each season down the stretch, culminating in ironclad defensive pressure that pushed them to championships. In 2024, the Aces are fifth in the league at just over 100 DRTG, but over the past five games, sit atop the league at 97.0. The Aces are rounding into defensive form just in time for what could likely be another tough road for any team trying to score against the Aces’ defense. 

The Aces could also stand to improve their shooting defense, especially from deep. In the ‘22 playoffs, the defense was fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage. In 2023, that improved to second at a shade under 32 percent. In 2024, the team is tied for the second-worst opponent’s three-point percentage, indicating that this team has some room to improve its perimeter defense. It’s not all doom and gloom, as the defense is third in perimeter defense over the past five games. Should they continue on this trend, it will go a long way to fixing their very average sixth-ranked opponent’s FG% and PPG. 

Clutch Play

Another defensive area the Aces need to clean up is during clutch play, or when the score is within 10 points with five or fewer minutes remaining in the game. This season, they have the second-worst DRTG in clutch minutes. In contrast, they had the second-best clutch DRTG in the 2023 playoffs and the stingiest during the 2022 playoffs. The Aces, who have the third-fewest total clutch minutes this season, will need to learn quickly how to adapt their defensive play during this critical juncture to three-peat.

On the offensive end, their TS% could use some work during clutch play. The Aces rank fifth this season in that category during clutch play, compared to third in the ‘23 playoffs and first in ‘22. It may be a bit nitpicky for a team that knows how to turn it on when the lights shine brightest, but as the marginal game becomes that much more critical in a playoff series, games are likely to be tighter, requiring the Aces to lean on their experience, moxie, and grit to battle and improve these numbers. 

All stats through Sept 6. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of WNBA.com