Where the Data Tells a Different Story About NFL Week 1

But was it all style and no substance? Richardson, in his first game from an injury that cost him most of last season, wasn’t shy about taking his shots with a league-high 16.0 air yards per attempt.

That figures to explain some of his 68.4% well-thrown rate that is second-to-last in the NFL so far, ahead of only Young’s 66.7 mark (11.81 air yards per attempt). However, Richardson also targeted an open receiver an NFL-worst 42.1% of the time on Sunday.

Whether it was because his receivers weren’t getting open or because he was making the wrong decisions, Richardson was throwing to pass catchers who, most of the time, weren’t open.

As a point of comparison, Lawrence had an open target percentage of 94.7, which actually makes his 68.4 well-thrown percentage look much worse.

Taking the Top off

Sure, Cooper Kupp had the big numbers of the weekend with 14 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Los Angeles Rams’ overtime loss at Detroit on Sunday night.

But he also averaged only 5.67 burn yards (league average 10.0) across his 21 targets with an average depth of target of just 8.7 yards (NFL average 10.4).

Of course, we’re only being half serious about criticizing Kupp’s performance. Although, it’s one thing to get open on short crossing routes, slants, pick plays or beating a linebacker out of the slot. It’s a whole another thing to beat a defense down the field for big plays.

Out of the 18 pass catchers who have been targeted at least four times in Week 1 with a depth of target of at least 13 yards, only Jayden Reed (four catches, 138 yards, TD) and Tyler Lockett (six catches, 77 yards) are the only ones to post 100% open rates (plays in which the receiver is deemed open when targeted).

Reed’s depth of target on Sunday was 17.5 yards – the fifth-highest average of Week 1 so far. He has easily posted the most burn yards per target (28.03) and big-play percentage (86.7). Lockett had the highest burn percentage (85.7) with a 13.1 average depth of target.

A burn is when a receiver “wins” his matchup on a play in which he’s targeted, regardless of whether the pass was catchable or not.

Something out of Nothing

J.K. Dobbins had a Chargers debut to remember with 10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown in a 22-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Consider that Dobbins averaged an NFL-high 10.1 yards before contact in Sunday’s win – meaning that most of the time, he wasn’t interacting with a defender until he was in the defensive backfield.

Dobbins also averaged 3.40 yards after contact – second behind only Aaron Jones’ 3.64 mark, so he wasn’t just relying on great play calling or the offensive line to rack up his numbers.   

On the flip side, who made the most of their bad situation in Week 1? For this, we’re looking at the running backs who averaged the most yards after contact despite averaging less than 2.0 yards before contact (so they faced a potential tackler almost immediately).

Devin Singletary had a disappointing first game with New York Giants as he rushed 10 times for 37 yards in a 28-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but he made the most of his chances by averaging more than 2.6 yards after contact – the most in the league among those with at least 10 carries in Week 1.

To further the point, he also ranks third so far in forced missed or broken tackles per touch (.357) behind only Rhamondre Stevenson (.500) and Jones (.375).

Jaleel McLaughlin of the Denver Broncos managed 27 yards on 10 carries despite averaging less than 1 yard before interacting with a defender on his carries. He owns the second-largest differential between yards after contact and yards before contact, and ranks sixth in forced missed or broken tackles per touch (.333).

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