UFC Vegas 97: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Burns vs. Brady

UFC Vegas 97 takes place this weekend (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event has two Welterweights desperate to get into the title picture with Gilbert Burns taking on Sean Brady (despite both carrying losses to the current champ Belal Muhammad).

The co-main event has former champion Jessica Andrade suiting it up for her 28th UFC contest. She’ll be facing the streaking Natalia Silva in the Flyweight division (and trying to take her mind off a current legal battle she’s embroiled in). The main card also has Featherweight sluggers Kyle Nelson and Steve Garcia (who is on quite the streak of his own) and Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz. A Flyweight bout between Alessandro Costa and Matt Schnell will not be taking place (details here).

The “Prelims” were supposed to be headlined by Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ryan Spann in the Light Heavyweight division. However, OSP is out sick — so the promotion will need to shuffle someone else into that spot. Accompanying those veterans on the undercard are Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendan Marotte and Jaquline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Burns vs. Brady” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 97 Main Card Money Line Odds

Gilbert Burns (+160) vs. Sean Brady (-190)

Sean Brady probably had mixed feelings when Belal Muhammad mopped the floor with Leon Edwards to win the UFC Welterweight title a few weeks ago. One the one hand, his lone pro loss at the hands of Muhammad (via TKO — see it here) looks a lot less surprising now. But on the other hand, it’s going to be hard for Brady to make a case for a title fight against a man who turned out his lights. Though, it shouldn’t go unnoticed that Brady did have some good moments early in that fight until Muhammad completely turned the tide on him.

Gilbert Burns has spent sometime with Muhammad also. His loss to the future champ wasn’t as unexpected as Brady’s, but he too was thoroughly beaten by ‘Remember The Name’. Muhammad’s win over Burns was more typical, with Burns been pressured and exhausted by the now champ on route to a lopsided decision loss.

Both Burns and Brady have fought once since their losses to Muhammad. Brady came back with a vengeance to beat up Kelvin Gastelum, before finishing him with a kimura (see it here) in December.

Burns was unable to bounce back. He met the rising Jack Della Maddalena last September and was stunned with a late knee (see it here), to lose a fight he was doing very well in.

Brady is the favorite in this bout. I think the odds are pretty fair here, especially given that Burns just turned 38. Brady will turn 32 later this year.

Burns’ BJJ is way better than Brady’s. Previously, we might have thought this would be enough of a deterrent to stop Brady wanting to be on top of him. However, in recent years the level of grappling acumen among top fighters has risen so much that BJJ specialists no longer have an easy time catching guys from the bottom. I think Brady will take Burns down and enjoy a lot of top control. He’s really active and mobile from top position so I think he’ll be able to avoid Burns’ set-ups for submissions and sweeps. If Burns doesn’t work to get up immediately from the ground I think he’ll eat a lot of shots there and that this might be the story of the fight.

When the fight is on the feet, you have to think that Brady will have more success there. Burns is no slouch standing and he lands at a decent clip (3.29 sig. strikes per minute). But he doesn’t have the same power in his punches that Brady has. His only striking stoppages in the UFC are against a 42-year-old Demian Maia (see it here), Jason Saggo and Dan Moret.

Brady doesn’t have one punch knock out power, either, but I think his relentless offense might wear the older (and more battle-worn) Burns down in the later rounds.

Prediction: Sean Brady via TKO, round 4.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jessica Andrade (+240) vs. Natalia Silva (-300)

After winning her first five UFC fights (including a spinning kick KO on Tereza Bleda — see it here), Natalia Silva has been given a shot to truly announce herself as a contender at Flyweight.

Against Jessica Andrade she’ll meet a former UFC Strawweight champion who has fought almost everyone across three women’s divisions. Currently Andrade is on a two-fight winning streak thanks to a split decision over Marina Rodriguez and a KO over Mackenzie Dern (see it here).

Remarkably Andrade is still only 32-years-old. At her age you still need to worry about her power, athleticism and work-rate. However, it’s not clear that she’s gotten any wiser with her age. Andrade’s career has been marked with a number of low IQ moments and a propensity to fight herself into trouble.

Silva will have good size advantage over Andrade and a three inch reach advantage. Andrade has made a career on bullying bigger opponents. But I think a lot of that success is in the past and that Silva might be too big (and too young) to be overwhelmed here.

Silva has a 65% striking defense and I think she’ll be able to make Andrade miss and then punish her for doing so. I like her 90% takedown defense, too, and think that will prove pivotol once Andrade notices she’s not winning this on the feet.

Prediction: Natalia Silva via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Steve Garcia (-190) vs. Kyle Nelson (+160)

Since getting starched in his second UFC contest (see that here), Steve Garcia has finished four straight fights by TKO. Among those wins was a brutal body shot to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (see it here) and a first round battering of Seung Woo Choi (see it here). Garcia has legit fight ending power in his hands and anyone who is willing to trade with him is going to have a very tough time.

Kyle Nelson has done well to establish himself in the UFC as a fun and tough Featherweight. And he’s looked good in producing a four fight undefeated streak (which started with a draw versus Doo Ho Choi). The last fight in that streak with a TKO over Bill Algeo in March (due to an early stoppage).

Nelson is a guy you never want to count out, but I don’t like how many shots he takes and that’s not something you want to say about a Steve Garcia opponent right now.

Nelson absorbs 4.69 significant strikes per minute. That’s despite having a striking defense just over 50 percent.

Garcia will also have a four inch reach advantage in this fight.

Prediction: Steve Garcia via TKO, round 3.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Trevor Peek (-125) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+105)

I don’t know what business this fight has being on the main card. Tevor Peek is 2-2 in UFC. He beat Erick Gonazalez via a wild TKO in his debut (see it here), but has since lost decisions to Chepe Mariscal and Charlie Campbell. Yanal Ashmouz joined the UFC in 2023 and scored a TKO over Sam Patterson (see it here). He then lost a decision to Chris Duncan.

While Ashmouz appears to be the more technical fighter, he still seems quite raw and I doubt he will be able to handle the energy and pressure of Peek. Peek is also the heavier hitter, with 8 of his 9 wins all coming via strikes.

Prediction: Trevor Peek via TKO, round 2.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Rongzhu (-270) vs. Chris Padilla (+220)

Chris Padilla gets underdog status again here, after submitting James Llontop on +340 odds in April (see that here). The win over Llontop looks even better now, given how tough the Peruvian looked against Viacheslav Borschev two weeks ago. That Llontop win was Padilla’s UFC debut (on short notice). Prior to that he had fought only across the regional scene and in Bellator (losing to Gabe Green).

Rongzhu just came off Road to UFC. He won three fights on that vehicle, two of which were stoppages. He’s been in the UFC proper before, though, losing to Kazula Vargas and Ignacio Bahamondes.

My pick is Rongzhu, because I think his volume stirking might be too much for Padilla to take. But I’m not very confident in it. Rongzhu has been submitted a lot in his career, so there’s a chance he gets caught out here, too.

Prediction: Rongzhu via unanimous decision.

UFC Vegas 97 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ryan Spann (-350) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+265)

Ryan Spann is currently riding a three fight losing streak. Last time out he was finished by Bogdan Guskov (see it here). Prior to that he lost to Guskov’s doppelganger Anthony Smith via split decision. Spann looked OK in the first round of the Guskov fight, but after he failed to get him down in the second he got badly hurt when Guskov started to connect.

41-year-old Ovince Saint Preux beat Kennedy Nzechukwu via split decision in March. That came after he was TKO’d by Philipe Lins in 49 seconds a year earlier (see it here). OSP has only fought three times since 2022. He looked pretty lively in the Nzechukwu bout, though. Those two put on a war and Saint Preux showed he’s still got a chin, staying upright despite taking 98 significant strikes to the head.

Spann is a big favorite here, but I think this fight is pretty even. If I’m picking who I think might be more durable, I might just go with OSP. However, I don’t know if OSP has much pop left in his bat. His last finish was in 2020 versus Alonzo Menifield. I think Spann should be able to grind on him against the fence and maybe land a takedown here and there. And if Spann does miss on that approach, I don’t think OSP will be able to punish him with the kind of blows we just saw Guskov land.

Prediction: Ryan Spann via unanimous decision.

UPDATE: This fight has been cancelled due to illness on the part of Ovince Saint Preux.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Isaac Dulgarian (-3000) vs. Brendon Marotte (+1100)

Feels like we get one of these every card now.

Isaac Dulgarian has incredibly short odds here against Brendan Marotte, who is making his second UFC appearance after a 20 second KO loss to Terrance McKinney. Dulgarian is coming off a split decision loss to Christian Rodriguez, but he did TKO Francis Marshall in his UFC debut last year (see it here).

Recently we’ve seen these big favorites all win (Payton Talbott, Cong Wong, Tom Nolan). I don’t think Vegas will miss on this one either.

Dulgarian should be able to take Marotte down at will and I think he’ll get a ground and pound win relatively early on in the fight.

Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian via TKO, round 1.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Felipe dos Santos (+160) vs. Andre Lima (-190)

Flyweight Andre Lima has had a weird UFC career so far. He won his UFC debut after Igor Severino bit him (no, really — see that here). He then took a split decision over Mitch Raposo in a fight where he weighed in at 130 lbs.

Felipe dos Santos lost his UFC debut to Manel Kape last year, but took home a Fight of the Night bonus for his efforts. Dos Santos came in on short notice for that fight, but looked like a very exciting prospect in the division. He has since beaten Victor Altamirano via split decision.

I have a lot more faith in what I’ve seen from Dos Santos versus what I’ve seen from Lima. If this is a fair fight, with no weirdness involved, I think Dos Santos will be the better striker on the night and come through another exciting fight with a win.

Prediction: Felipe dos Santos via unanimous decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Yizha (?) vs. Gabriel Santos (?)

No odds were released for this fight at this time of writing.

Neither fighter has much on their records to get excited over. Yizha has spent a lot of time on the Chinese regional circuit, has some ‘quirks’ to it (that’s something I know thanks to my past life as an investigate MMA reporter).

Gabriel Santos was lit up by David Onama last time out (see it here). It’s been well over a year since that fight. Santos was supposed to fight Westin Wilson in January but withdrew.

I have to make a pick here, so I’m just going with Yizha. He’s got more UFC experience and has been more active as of late.

Prediction: Yizha via submission, round 2.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jaqueline Amorim (-330) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+255)

Jaqueline Amorim is a very interesting prospect in the Strawweight division. Since losing to a very tough Sam Hughes in her debut, she’s TKO’d Montserrat Ruiz and arm-barred Cory McKenna (see that here).

Her high level BJJ (IBJFF Worlds no-gi runner-up in 2016) makes her a problem for most fighters in her division. Vanessa Demopoulos has never been submitted in MMA, but she’s also never fought someone with Amorim’s grappling credentials.

Amorim is also seven years younger than Demopoulos and she posses a massive nine inch reach advantage. With Demopoulos having just 30% takedown defense, I think it’s a pretty sound assumption that Amorim will be able to take her down and tap her out inside the distance.

Prediction: Jaqueline Amorim via submission, round 2.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Andre Petroski (-280) vs. Dylan Budka (+230)

This is a wrestler vs. wrestler battle. But I think Andre Petroski’s wrestling game is far better tuned for MMA than Dylan Budka’s is at this point. Petroski showed how well he has adapted his game in beating Josh Fremd last time out (a fighter who posed a lot of risk to Petroski on the feet).

All we’ve really seen of Budka is his loss to Cesar Almeida. He gassed out in this fight and his loss is what had us convinced Almeida was the next GLORY vet turned super prospect in UFC. Almeida then lost to Roman Kopylov.

If these two cancel out each other’s wrestling, then Petroski’s grappling and striking advantages will become glaringly obvious.

Prediction: Andre Petrovski via TKO, round 3.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Zygimantas Ramaska (+120) vs. Nathan Fletcher (-140)

These guys are coming off the most recent installment of The Ultimate Fighter. Nathan Fletcher has faced better opposition than Zygimantas Ramaska, due to his time in Cage Warriors. That might be why Vegas has him as the slight favorite. This is a coin flip for me, since we’ve not seen either of them at the UFC level. I’ll pick Ramaska since Fletcher had an illness recently; that’s what cost them their fight at UFC Vegas 96.

Prediction: Zygimantas Ramaska via unanimous decision.

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 97 Prop Bets, Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 97 card …

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopolous, Under 2.5 rounds (+165)

Jaqueline Amorim is the best prospect on this card and she’s been given a stepping stone in the form of Vanessa Demopolous. Amorim has some of the best BJJ in her division and I think she’ll be able to stop Demopolous early. Amorim has six first round submissions on her 8-1 record. She’s also shown she can finish with strikes (she has a 10 second TKO win in LFA).

Two-fight parlay: Steve Garcia to defeat Kyle Nelson and Andre Petroski to defeat Dylan Budka (+109)

I really think Garcia’s reach and power will be too much for Nelson. And I don’t see Nelson being able to do anything to prevent this being a boxing match. There’s nothing Budka does better than Petroski. And there’s plenty Petroski does better than Budka. Garcia and Petroski are favorites for a reason, so I’m going to parlay them together to get a little plus money.

Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady: Fight to end in the last 10 seconds of any round – Yes (+5000)

This is a fun one. And since I don’t see any characters worth putting my point deduction bet on, I’ll throw a dart at this. I think it’s entirely possible that either Sean Brady clubs Gilbert Burns silly for a round and gets a very late TKO or that Burns throws up a hail mary submission to get a buzzer beating tap.

Photo by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 97 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 97 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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