How the Mercury’s 5-game homestand can determine playoff picture

It’s about to get interesting at Footprint Center for the Phoenix Mercury.

The Mercury (16-14) won Friday’s decisive game against the Atlanta Dream, making Phoenix 3-2 in the first five games back from the Olympic break.

“We tried to view this as a playoff series coming here for two games because more than likely we’re going to be on the road to start the playoffs probably the whole way through,” coach Nate Tibbetts said after Friday’s second of two consecutive games in Atlanta. Phoenix lost Wednesday’s game.

“We’re going to have to win on the road. It was a good opportunity for us to play the first game and see how we responded and make some adjustments and our group stepped up,” he said.

With one-third of the games now done and the regular season ending Sept. 19, the Mercury have a crucial five-game homestand starting this week. The first three games will consist of the WNBA’s best teams.

Keeping up with the Mercury: Rookie guard Celeste Taylor rejoins team on 7-day deal after week with Sun

It starts with the league-leading New York Liberty on Monday night. Phoenix then will face the Minnesota Lynx on Wednesday and the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday. All three of those teams could finish in the top four and host a best-of-three first-round playoff series.

The last two games will be played against the Dream on Sept. 3 and the Washington Mystics on Sept. 5. Both teams sit outside of a playoff spot, but the Dream narrowly trail the Chicago Sky for the last spot. The Mystics have been at the bottom of the league’s standings throughout the season but have given the Mercury a tough time in the last two matchups.

Another team to watch that isn’t coming to Footprint Center is the Indiana Fever. Friday’s win helped the Mercury maintain their spot ahead of the surging Fever (13-15) for the sixth-best record in the WNBA. If the season ended today, the Mercury would face the third-seeded Lynx (21-8). The Mercury are 1-2 against Minnesota.

The Fever have put pressure on the Mercury for the sixth spot. Caitlin Clark has averaged 26.0 points and 9.5 assists in the two wins against the Mercury and the Seattle Storm following the Olympic break.

Two-team ties are decided first by the head-to-head record and then, if necessary, the better record against over-.500 teams. The Fever own the tiebreaker against the Mercury as they swept the season series. Eight teams make the postseason.

It’s an easier road for the Fever to close the season. The Mercury will have just four games against teams under .500 in the last 10 games. Seven of the Fever’s 12 remaining games are against those teams.

However, the tough schedule ahead shouldn’t tamper with the Mercury making the playoffs. According to ESPN, Phoenix has a 98% chance of making the playoffs.

Even with a high chance, the Mercury must win for a better matchup. Unlike in other leagues, the teams aren’t seeded by their respective conference.

The first round of the playoffs, which begins Sept. 22, will feature four, three-game series. The semifinals will consist of two best-of-five series. Similarly, the WNBA Finals also will be a best-of-five series. In the Finals, the higher-seeded team will get home court advantage for Games 1, 2, and 5, while the lower seed will be at home in Games 3 and 4.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Where are the Mercury in the WNBA playoffs?