UFC Abu Dhabi preview: ‘Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov’ predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Abu Dhabi mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024) on ABC, ESPN2, and ESPN+ from inside Etihad Arena on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, UAE, featuring a bantamweight main event between No. 2-ranked contender Cory Sandhagen and undefeated 135-pound prospect Umar Nurmagomedov, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.

Before we preview and predict the main and co-main event contests, which includes the 185-pound scrap between red-hot middleweight Sharabutdin Magomedov and Polish powerhouse Michał Oleksiejczuk, get all the latest “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For the rest of the UFC Abu Dhabi main card predictions CLICK HERE. Reminder: Nick Diaz vs. Vicente Luque was recently pulled from the card due to (cough) “travel issues” in the Diaz camp.

135 lbs.: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen

Record: 17-4 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +245
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.33 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.40 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.36 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 64%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Rob Font

Umar Nurmagomedov

Record: 17-0 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -305
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 69” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.75 | Striking accuracy: 69%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 0.56 | Striking Defense: 76%
Takedown Average: 4.51 (56% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Bekzat Almakhan

Cory Sandhagen is comfortably seated in the No. 2 spot at 135 pounds, behind Merab Dvalishvili and champion Sean O’Malley. “Sandman” was able to rebound from back-to-back decision losses to TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan to capture three in a row, having last seen action at UFC Nashville roughly one year back. The extended layoff was a result of a triceps injury suffered in his Rob Font victory in “Music City,” the tenth straight time Sandhagen has fought a ranked opponent — four of them former UFC champions. Now training full time under striking specialist Trevor Wittman, Sandhagen is hoping to introduce a more dangerous version of himself when the cage door closes this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

“I’ve been with Trevor for about four months now,” Sandhagen told MMA Junkie. “Working with Trevor has been great. He’s super impressive. He really knows how to work with the athletes on the technical, strategic side of things. I haven’t met anyone better honestly. He far exceeded my expectations on what he was going to be, and that’s really cool because I didn’t really know. I really feel like me, Trevor, Ryan Hall, head coach Carrington Banks, they came up with the recipe for success in this one, and I just got to go out there and execute.”

Their UFC Abu Dhabi headliner is scheduled for five, five-minute rounds.

“This camp has been a handful,” Sandhagen continued. “Fighting someone that’s this well rounded is a handful. So, it’s been everything. I really had to push myself really far in order to learn enough, understand things enough, and also the physical and mental preparation. You add in a really unique style of fighting with someone that’s really good at striking and really good at grappling, it makes you work really hard. So, I worked my ass off this camp.”

Umar Nurmagomedov is undefeated in his professional MMA career and just entering his competitive prime at age 28. He’s also coached and cornered by former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who previously contributed to other UFC titleholders like Islam Makhachev and Belal Muhammad. Umar competed for Professional Fighters League (PFL) on two separate occasions and has only been with UFC since early 2021. In five trips to the Octagon, Nurmagomedov has compiled a 5-0 mark with three nasty finishes and will enter this contest just a few months removed from his decision victory over International standout Bekzat Almakhan. Like his UFC Abu Dhabi opponent, Nurmagomedov is dangerous wherever the fight goes and already has his eyes on a potential title shot.

“I hope I will fight next, they said I will fight whoever will win (between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili),” Nurmagomedov told MMA Junkie. “I think they pray, they hope I will pull out and will not take this opportunity to fight for the title. They wish this. For me it doesn’t matter who wins. It’s a very hard fight for both. One is a wrestling, one is a striker with height. He is tall. Stylistically, for me, personally it’s very difficult to say who is going to win. I don’t know.”

O’Malley defends his bantamweight title against Dvalishvili at The Sphere in September.

“[Fighting O’Malley is] never going to be close to Khabib and Conor (McGregor) because they have personal hate,” Nurmagomedov continued. “He talked bad about religion, family, everything — father. I don’t know. I see Sean’s personality, he’s not too dirty of a person to talk bad about my family or my religion. But if we will fight it’s Irish vs. Dagestan again. It’s going to be interesting, but I think it’s not going to be same. I just want to beat him. I just want to take his belt. But personally, for him, I don’t know nothing.”

The deciding factor in this contest will be Sandhagen’s takedown defense. That’s not to take away from Nurmagomedov’s striking, which is good enough to give “Sandman” problems on the feet, but why pass up the path of least resistance? Umar has 14 takedowns in five UFC fights and Sandhagen’s takedown defense is … not great. That said, we also have to recognize that Nurmagomedov has yet to face a truly elite bantamweight, something Sandhagen has been doing for most of his career. I expect this to be closely contested battle for most of the fight, with Nurmagomedov stealing the deciding round by scoring a well-timed takedown.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov def. Sandhagen by decision

185 lbs.: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk

Sharabudtin “Shara Bullet” Magomedov

Record: 13-0 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -238
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 7.10 | Striking accuracy: 74%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.95 | Striking Defense: 35%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 78%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Antonio Trocoli

Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk

Record: 19-8, 1 NC | Age: 29 | Betting line: +195
Wins: 14 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 74” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.07 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.27 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 0.73 (44% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 48%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission loss to Kevin Holland

Sharabutdin Magomedov is the new kid on the middleweight block, who signed with UFC back in late 2023 after a torrid run on the global circuit that was highlighted by nine straight knockout finishes. Sounds great on paper, but let’s also keep things in perspective since most of his opponents were graduates of the International Academy of Warm Bodies, like Yincang “The Microwave” Bao and Kushal “The Maniac” Vyas. In two fights with UFC, “Shara Bullet” decisioned Bruno Silva (UFC 294) and starched Antonio Trocoli (UFC Saudi Arabia). He lands a ridiculous 7.10 significant strikes per minute at 74-percent accuracy, unheard of numbers at this level but stats that are likely to go down as he climbs the middleweight rankings and starts facing some of the bigger names in the division. Until then, the Dagestani striker will have to settle for his revenge plot this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

“Frankly speaking, I wanted to fight such an experienced fighter who has 8-10 fights [in the UFC],” Magomedov told a group of reporters in Abu Dhabi (transcribed by Sherdog). “And he, as far as I know, has around 12-13 UFC fights and also beat two Russian fighters or even three. I don’t like the fact that he beat our guys. I need to right this wrong.”

Opponent Michal Oleksiejczuk holds first-round knockout wins over Gadzhimurad Antigulov (UFC St. Petersburg) and Shamil Gamzatov (UFC 267).

“I wouldn’t say it’s too personal but he made some memes about me like, ‘If you want to join the big guys club I’m here to greet you in the Octagon’ — as if he’s kind of a giant,” Magomedov continued. “Yes he’s a good fighter, a solid opponent with an awkward standup, a southpaw. But throughout my entire career I have fought with awkward guys. But when the fight started I appeared to be an awkward opponent for them, not the other way around.”

Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous striker with 14 knockouts in 19 wins, having plastered the likes of Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey, among others. His most difficult fight in UFC has been with consistency, as “Hussar” (a callback to Poland’s heavy cavalry in the 16th century) is just above the .500 mark at 7-6 with one No Contest. More concerning is the fact that Oleksiejczuk is coming off back-to-back losses and has now dropped three of his last four — all by way of submission. Part of the problem is the Pole’s takedown defense, or lack thereof, giving opponents who don’t want to stand-and-bang an easy alternative. I’m not sure that matters for the UFC Abu Dhabi co-main event, unless Magomedov finds himself in trouble on the feet.

“Borralho and Pereira are top fighters in my category,” Oleksiejczuk previously told UFC.com about his recent losses. “I made a few mistakes, but I believe that one day I will become UFC champion. The fight with Pereira was a difficult experience for me. I had a great training camp and it’s a pity that I didn’t show a good fight. But I don’t give up and I still believe in myself. After a defeat, I always want to win at all costs, and on Saturday, it will show in the fight.”

Oleksiejczuk has more experience in UFC and fought tougher opponents, but he was also out-struck by Dustin Jacoby and holds a previous drug test failure for Clomiphene. With his consistency issues it’s hard to pick him against Magomedov, who has momentum on his side and a second home in Abu Dhabi. Considering these two will both be looking for the knockout, I would be surprised if this fight saw a second round.

Prediction: Magomedov def. Oleksiejczuk by knockout

Reminder: For the rest of the UFC Abu Dhabi main card predictions CLICK HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Abu Dhabi fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Abu Dhabi news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here, here, and here. For the updated and finalized “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” fight card and ABC/ESPN+ lineup click here.