MLB Pipeline 2024 mock draft July 11

The only certainty about the Guardians and the No. 1 overall pick is that it will go down to the wire. There are strategic and financial advantages for not making a decision or revealing it until the Draft begins at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, and Cleveland is keeping quiet.

The Guardians will weigh both ability and signability, with their call likely coming down to three college hitters: Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon and West Virginia middle infielder JJ Wetherholt. Condon will command the highest bonus and may break Paul Skenes’ Draft record of $9.2 million even if he doesn’t go No. 1. Bazzana probably falls to the Athletics at No. 4 if Cleveland passes on him, while Wetherholt may peak with the White Sox at No. 5 if he’s not the top selection.

Florida first baseman/left-handed pitcher Jac Caglianone, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns and Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith may also be in play to some extent but are more longshots at this point.

1. Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Since we’ve gotten in the habit of assigning percentages to the possible outcomes with this pick, I’ll update mine: Bazzana 34 percent, Condon 33 percent, Wetherholt 32 percent, the field 1 percent. As mentioned above, those are just educated guesses.

2. Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
Condon to the Reds feels like the biggest lock in the first few choices, provided he’s available. Cincinnati is looking at the same six collegians as Cleveland, with Caglianone and Burns as backup plans.

3. Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6)
The Rockies also wouldn’t hesitate to pop Condon and may be on the same six players as the teams ahead of them. Assuming Condon doesn’t last this long, they’d probably turn to pitching (Burns appears to be ahead of Smith) rather than Caglianone.

4. Athletics: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 7)
The A’s would snap up Bazzana if the Guardians go in a different direction. Oakland will take a collegian and almost certainly a bat, with Kurtz, Caglianone and Texas A&M right fielder Braden Montgomery the leading contenders. If Kurtz or Montgomery doesn’t find a home here, they could drop toward the end of the top 10, which gives the A’s some leverage.

5. White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
The White Sox faced a decision of Wetherholt versus Mississippi prep shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin, but that was before Caglianone lasted a little longer than expected. If he’s gone, Chicago may lean to Griffin, who would come at a discount because concerns about his swing trump his huge ceiling (the highest in the Draft) for several clubs and could cause him to slide out of the top 10.

6. Royals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5)
Everyone knows the Royals love both Smith and California high school shortstop Bryce Rainer. It will be an upset if they choose anyone else.

7. Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
The Cardinals might pounce on either of the college arms if they get this is far, which is a strong possibility because their only solid landing spots are Burns at No. 3 and Smith at No. 6. They’d opt for Smith over Burns and with both gone, Wetherholt would make a lot of sense. Kurtz and Rainer also could fit.

8. Angels: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
This pick may be as simple as who drops to the Angels. In this scenario, it’s Montgomery. In others, Wetherholt, one of the college arms or Kurtz could be in play. Don’t rule out Rainer either. Several clubs believe Los Angeles could look for a discount deal with a college bat such as Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore, Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge or Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.

9. Pirates: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 12)
As with the Angels, the Pirates are waiting to see who falls while also mulling below-slot options. This could be Kurtz’s landing spot if the A’s don’t take him. If the eight players projected above all come off the board, Pittsburgh could save some money with Tibbs, Moore or Benge. It also could shoot for ceiling with Griffin or Rainer.

10. Nationals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. (No. 10)
Grabbing a high-ceiling player like Rainer or Griffin would fit the Nationals’ modus operandi. They also wouldn’t mind a shot at the college players projected with the top eight picks above.

11. Tigers: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (No. 9)
Griffin’s ceiling would be difficult to pass up at No. 11, while Kurtz would be a nice talent value if he slides. Despite strong links to Arizona prep left-hander Cam Caminiti for a while, the Tigers may be more apt to consider a less expensive option such as Tibbs, Florida State third baseman Cam Smith or Texas high school infielder Theo Gillen.

12. Red Sox: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 13)
If an unexpected surprise doesn’t slip to 12, the Red Sox figure to grab someone from a pool of a dozen or so guys in the second tier of college bats. Leading contenders include Moore, Smith, Benge and Waldschmidt. This is probably the ceiling for Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White and North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt. If Boston wants pitching, East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage would be the obvious choice.

13. Giants: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. (No. 15)
Kurtz could fall further than any of the six best college bats, but this would be his absolute floor. Unless Rainer or Griffin otherwise drops, the Giants will decide between Caminiti and Yesavage.

14. Cubs: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
The Cubs also are holding out slim hopes for Kurtz, Rainer or Griffin. Yesavage would be a nice addition to a farm system lacking in pitching depth. With Tibbs and Moore gone in this scenario, hitting contenders would include Smith, Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore and King.

15. Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State (No. 25)
The Mariners prefer a pitcher, covet Yesavage and would be happy to snare the switch-pitching Cijntje. Illinois high school right-hander Ryan Sloan may be the next arm on their list, with Waldschmidt the top available position player. Arkansas prep outfielder Slade Caldwell is a sleeper here.

16. Marlins: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14)
Get ready for a run on college bats, starting now. Tibbs, Christian Moore, Smith, Benge and King are all potential targets for the Marlins, who could consider Cijntje.

17. Brewers: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 18)
More college bats: Christian Moore, Smith, Benge, Honeycutt, King.

18. Rays: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (No. 23)
And more college bats: Waldschmidt, Smith, Benge, Malcolm Moore. Cijntje and Gillen would be possibilities from different demographics.

19. Mets: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 22)
And even more college bats: Benge, Honeycutt, King.

20. Blue Jays: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 17)
Yet more college bats: the four guys projected to go 16-19, plus King, Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White and California catcher Caleb Lomavita.

21. Twins: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 32)
Still more college bats: Honeycutt, King, Amick. The Twins also could consider Louisiana high school right-hander William Schmidt and could try to float him down to their next selection at No. 33.

22. Orioles: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21)
Brecht comes with a similar ceiling but more risk than the top college arms, Smith and Burns. The Orioles also could keep the college position players going with Waldschmidt, Amick, White and Kansas State shortstop Kaelen Culpepper.

23. Dodgers: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Austin, Texas (No. 28)
The Dodgers seem to be shifting their focus to high school shortstops (led by Gillen and Kellon Lindsey) and Caldwell from pitchers such as Brecht, Schmidt and Oklahoma prep lefty Kash Mayfield.

24. Braves: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chapparal HS, Temecula, Calif. (No. 36)
The Braves are pining for the right college hitter (Benge, Waldschmidt, King) to make his way down to No. 24. Barring that, they’re all over Doughty, who has helium and would be their fifth straight first-round pitcher.

25. Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS (No. 30)
Speaking of streaks, the Padres have taken prepsters with their last seven first-rounders and three supplemental first-rounders. They can keep that going with Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan, South Carolina high school outfielder PJ Morlando or Schmidt.

26. Yankees: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Elmhurst, Ill. (No. 19)
The Yankees would like a pitcher, and most of the best values in this scenario would be high schoolers Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan and Bryce Meccage. White could be the top college bat option for New York, which is also the ceiling for New Jersey prep shortstop Luke Dickerson.

27. Phillies: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 20)
The Phillies would love a college bat, with the best remaining options including White, Amick and Culpepper. Morlando is a high school hitting candidate and they’re also not afraid of prep arms, which could lead them to Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan or Schmidt.

28. Astros: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla. (No. 29)
The Astros are linked to the second tier of high school shortstops (Gillen, Lindsey, Tyson Lewis, Carter Johnson, Wyatt Sanford) and the top group of college catchers (Janek, Moore, Lomavita). They also like Virginia shortstop Griff O’Ferrall, who begins to come into play around this point of the Draft.

29. Diamondbacks: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (No. 26)
Because the Diamondbacks own three of the next seven choices, they get tied to several players in a variety of demographics: college hitters (the three catchers, Amick, Culpepper, Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan), high school bats (Gillen, Caldwell, Lindsey, Morlando, Lewis) and prep arms (Mayfield, Sloan, Schmidt).

30. Rangers: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston (No. 24)
The Rangers wouldn’t mind adding a catcher in Moore, Janek or perhaps Lomavita. The high school shortstops and Caldwell also could happen here.

Supplemental first-round picks
31. Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. (No. 27)
32. Orioles: Griff O’Ferrall, SS, Virginia (No. 38)
33. Twins: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 33)
34. Brewers: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (No. 31)
35. Diamondbacks: Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 34)
36. Guardians: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, La. (No. 16)
37. Pirates: Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee (No. 64)
38. Rockies: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville (S.C.) HS (No. 43)
39. Royals: David Shields, LHP, Mt. Lebanon (Pa.) HS (No. 41)