Rookie scale extension candidates: From Jalen Green to Santi Aldama

• Likelihood of extension: Seemingly, unlikely

When contracts expire, they still count against the salary cap in some way in the form of what are known colloquially as “cap holds”. This is to prevent a situation in which an entire roster became free agents at the same time, allowing a team to have an entire salary cap to spend on external players, and then still be able to re-sign their own.

The size of each player’s cap hold is determined by a combination of what type of free agent they are, and how much their previous contract paid them. In the case of players becoming free agents following the fourth season of their rookie scale contract, their cap hold is equal to 300 percent of their previous season’s salary if it was below the league average, or 250 percent of their previous season’s salary if it was above the league average.

The relevance of that here is that the Rockets, it appears, are deliberately going to let Green become a free agent next summer, instead of extending him now. Were Green to sign a maximum-value extension this summer, his salary next summer will be approximately $35.1 million (with the exact amount not being known until next July); conversely, his cap hold next summer if he signs no extension will be 250 percent of his $12,483,048 2024-25 salary, or $31,207,620.

An approximate $4 million is not a huge difference, but it might be enough to make a difference in the cap space stakes if Houston go that route. To do so would mean not bringing back Fred VanVleet, but if they do decline his $44,886,930 team option for next season – as well as let Steven Adams hit the free agency market – then it is possible for them to be in the market.

More realistically, though, their reported hesitancy over extending Green will be a function of their indecision about his place in their future. It has been an up-and-down journey for the young scoring guard, from the crescendo in his rookie season to the rumors that his lack of growth made him a name on the trade market as recently as January, through to his strong end to the last campaign that put him in the max contract discussion in the first place. Given the inconsistent nature of things so far, it behooves Houston to get another year’s worth of information before making a decision.