Eckert’s Examinations: IDL Dean Lowry 2023 Pass Rush Study

Today, I wanted to look at interior defensive linemen Dean Lowry 2023 season as a pass rusher with the Minnesota Vikings, following up my run defense study on him. Let’s look at and provide some data context on Lowry’s pass rushing, along with the 2023 Steelers (with at least 100 regular season pass rush snaps) for comparative context.

Let’s get right to it, starting with 2023 pass rush snaps and pass rush wins versus blocking:

Very important quantity context right away. The only Steelers IDL with above the mean opportunities in 2023 was Larry Ogunjobi. He had 468 pass rush snaps, ranking 20th out of the 138 qualifiers. While his 37 pass rush wins were also above-average, they ranked a bit lower at 35th at the position. That and the trendline (diagonal line) emphasize less than expected wins given the volume.

The rest of the focused group land towards the bottom left. Opportunities ramped up for Keeanu Benton his rookie season, equating to 270 pass rush snaps (67th) in 2023. We see on the visual he provided more impact on fewer snaps, with 27 pass rush wins, tying for 48th. So, on roughly 200 fewer pass rush snaps, Benton landed favorably in the ranks among his peers.

Cameron Heyward lands near Benton, in an injury-hampered season. He had 275 pass rush snaps (65th) along with 24 pass rush wins, tied for 56th. Not only did he miss time, but clearly wasn’t 100-percent upon return. Looking and expecting Heyward and Benton to trend positively in 2024, which would be huge considering the direct impact IDL have, aligning closest to the quarterback pre-snap.

Then, four players in our sights land well below the mean. Here are the numbers on those men:

Montravius Adams: 252 pass rush snaps (74th), 18 pass rush wins (T-71st).

Armon Watts: 149 pass rush snaps (T-115th), 17 pass rush wins (T-75th).

Dean Lowry: 109 pass rush snaps (135th), three pass rush wins (T-132nd).

DeMarvin Leal: 107 pass rush snaps (136th), four pass rush wins (T-128th).

Watts is the lone name longer a Steeler, signing with the New England Patriots. Curiously, he wasn’t retained despite some encouraging play, including the best leap in pass rush wins given his snaps. Adams had the most opportunities, with his number of wins slightly below the mean.

Then we see Lowry. His 109 pass rush snaps were fourth-least among qualifiers, and three pass rush wins tied for seventh-fewest. Leal’s snaps were eerily similar, with similar production. The big difference between the two were circumstance. Leal became a healthy scratch as the season progressed compared to Lowry having a season-ending pectoral injury and playing in just nine games.

Lowry was on the field much more in previous seasons. Hopefully, good health and his experience will benefit Pittsburgh in 2024.  Considering the end of the depth chart is up for grabs, this group will be very interesting to monitor.

Here at hurries and total pressures to see how the players fared effecting the quarterback:

This visual makes sense overall, given the previous snap opportunities chart. Ogunjobi leads the focused group, as expected with 27 hurries (T-26th) and 35 total pressures (T-33rd).

The rest are on the bottom left of the chart. Benton was second on the team which sounds encouraging but 22 total pressures (T-53rd) and 14 hurries (T-65th) landed lower than that implies league-wide. Heyward and Adams each had 15 hurries (T-56th), with the former having 18 total pressures (T-67th) to Adams’ 15 (T-82nd). Watts also landed in that range with 16 total pressures (T-78th) and 12 hurries (T-80th).

Leal and Lowry land on the extreme bottom once again. Leal had the slight edge here with five hurries (T-114th) and seven total pressures (T-113th) while Lowry had four hurries (T-120th) and total pressures (T-127th).

While the quantity is low, Leal gave slightly more raw production in 2023. This gives us a greater feel of Lowry’s 2023 resume, a shortened season that he will be aiming to put behind him.

Now let’s shift to a rates perspective. Here’s an interesting formula from PFF called Pass Rush Productivity (PRP), which is defined as the amount of pressure accumulated per pass rush snap, also giving weight towards sacks along with pass snaps. This view with also includes true pass set PRP (excludes play action, screens, short drop backs, and time to throw numbers under two seconds) eliminating most plays in which the pass rusher was less likely to produce:

The only player clearly above the mean in each was Watts. His 12.9 true pass set PRP was particularly impressive, ranking fourth among qualifiers in 2023 along with a 6.2 PRP (T-24th). He maximized a lower number of opportunities at one of the best clips at the position last year as a pass rusher.

Then, much lower results. Benton was second on the team with a 4.5 PRP (T-60th) and a 6.4 true pass set PRP (T-77th). So, he interestingly saw more production in all situations as opposed to true pass sets (like Watts) where a player is more likely to produce. That applied to Ogunjobi, whose 7.1 true pass set PRP tied for 62nd, compared to a 4.3 PRP (T-69th).

The rest of the group was clearly below the mean. Leal lands closer to it than the previous views, with a 4.0 PRP (T-77th) and 6.1 true pass set PRP (82nd). Heyward’s stronger rank came on a 3.9 PRP (T-79th), compared to a 4.7 true pass set PRP (99th). Difficult to see such low ranks for the defensive captain. Adams was next in all situations, with a 3.2 PRP (T-93rd), and the lowest 3.7 true pass set PRP of players in our sights, 113th among qualifiers.

Lowry had the lowest 1.9 PRP of the group, ranking a lowly 125th out of the 138 qualifying IDL. So, we’re getting a great sense of pass rushing not being a strong suit in 2023. He fared better on a 5.3 PRP in true pass sets (T-90th), meaning more of his production came in expected situations.

Here are total pass rush and true pass set win percentages:

Clearly, Watts remained the top player for Pittsburgh last season with a whopping 27.4 true pass set win rate that ranked impressively at third. His 12.3 pass rush win rate was quite a bit lower in comparison (28th) but the data says he was worth retaining.

Benton moved above the mean in both data points here, encouragingly. His 10.5 pass rush win rate ranked 44th last season, along with a 13.6 in true pass sets that landed 56th. With an expected second year leap, here’s to hoping he provides more consistency to the pass rush abilities he displayed as a rookie.

Heyward was third on the team last season with a 9.3 pass rush win rate (T-52nd), but landed below-average in true pass sets with a 4.7 number that ranked 99th. Ogunjobi was slightly better in the latter at 7.1 (T-62nd) while his 8.4 pass rush win rate tied for 65th, each landing just below the mean.

The rest of the group were noticeably below average. Here are their numbers and ranks:

Adams: 7.6 pass rush win rate (76th), 8.1 true pass set win rate (99th).

Leal: 4.0 pass rush win rate (120th), 4.1 true pass set win rate (T-121st).

Lowry: 2.9 pass rush win rate (T-126th), 7.9 true pass set win rate (T-101st).

Adams led this group, particularly in pass rush win rate. Lowry moved up the ranks considerably in true pass sets, nearing what Adams provided while Leal was towards the bottom among his peers in each. Slightly encouraging for Lowry compared to the other views, producing when expected, which sounds nice for a depth piece at the end of the position room. Here’s to hoping that’s the case if he earns a role.

To close, here are PFF grades for the position group in the same situations (overall/true pass sets):

With more things considered in PFF’s grading system, we see Benton shot up the ranks with an 80.0 pass rush grade that tied for 13th among his peers last season along with an 81.3 in true pass sets (T-16th). Snap counts are one additional factor, contributing to a lower 65.3 pass rush grade (T-64th) for Watts than his win rate while still remaining strong in true pass sets (78.6, 25th).

Here’s the rest of the group, who were below average in one facet or another:

Adams: 66.0 pass rush grade (T-59th), 59.6 true pass set grade (101st).

Heyward: 64.2 pass rush grade (71st), 66.8 true pass set grade (71st).

Ogunjobi: 59.2 pass rush grade (94th), 61.4 true pass set grade (95th).

Lowry: 53.6 pass rush grade (T-119th), 64.0 true pass set grade (T-82nd).

Leal: 51.5 pass rush grade (126th), 54.7 true pass set grade (120th).

As they did in several aspects of the study, Lowry and Leal land at the bottom in pass rush grades. Lowry was stronger was in true pass sets, when a player is more likely to produce. These men are in the battle for Pittsburgh’s IDL depth, and if Lowry can continue to provide that in expected situations, it could separate him from players like Leal if they aren’t able to.