Arthur Smith Study: Third And Longs (2019-2023)

Today, I wanted to continue learning about new Steelers OC Arthur Smith’s previous coaching stops, and what that could possibly mean for the beginning of his journey in 2024 with Pittsburgh. Following up a recent three-and-out study, I wanted to look at NFL offenses on third and longs, needing seven-plus yards to convert the first down. The goal is to see how Smith, Pittsburgh, and the league has fared since 2019.

For starters, here is a visual of third and long attempts and conversions for Pittsburgh, and Smith’s coaching stops (Titans OC, Falcons HC):

Interesting results here. One important factor of third and longs is ideally avoiding getting into the situation in the first place. A few of Smith’s teams have the edge here, particularly the 2020 Titans. They had the least third and long attempts of focused teams with 80, which tied for 14th fewest out of 160 qualifiers. They converted 19 of those, which was also the least of offenses in our sights, and tied for 19th fewest across the league.

The 2022 Falcons faced the situation second-least on the visual (91 attempts), and tied for 42nd in the NFL. Despite facing the situation more than the aforementioned Tennessee squad, they had a similar number of conversions at 20. So, the encouraging side for these two squads was limiting the quantity of these low probability plays. However, they didn’t often convert in these moments.

Then we have the 2019 Titans, with 97 third and long attempts and 24 conversions. Of course, makes sense to convert more often having greater opportunities than the previous offenses, something the Atlanta unit in 2022 lacked in comparison. Another factor that makes a lot of sense is the top three teams on the chart above also fared well at limiting three-and-out drives, setting themselves up for better overall situations on third down compared to their peers.

Now we see four Pittsburgh teams. A commonality for the Steelers since 2019 was having over 100 third and long attempts, meaning they’ve put themselves in the less-than-ideal situation more often than the previously mentioned Smith offenses, and several other NFL teams.

The lesser of those evils was in 2022, when Pittsburgh had 100 third and long attempts, tying for 95th out of the 160 offenses in the timeframe. When comparing to Tennessee in 2019, who had a similar number of attempts, we see clearer success with 30 conversions, which ranked 21st in the span.

Even in 2019, Pittsburgh had a similar 101 third and long attempts (T-100th), with more conversions (26) than the aforementioned Smith teams. The Steelers 24 conversions last year in 2023 were their fewest since 2019 though, tying for 87th league-wide, on 102 attempts. 2020 matched last season in attempts (102), but had far more success with 32 conversions, their best mark of the timeframe and tied for ninth-best in the NFL.

So, we’re learning that there have been two sides of the coin for Pittsburgh in regards to third and long overall. The unfortunate side is being in the poor situation too often, but converting a reasonable amount compared to other NFL offenses overall was encouraging to learn.

Next, we have the remaining Smith offenses in Atlanta. In 2021, they faced third and long 105 times (T-115th), with 33 conversions. The latter tied for the seventh-most since 2019, fitting a similar bill to the Steelers tendencies. The other was unfortunately last year, with that Falcons offense facing 108 of them (T-123rd) and unable to convert as often (29, T-29th).

The final team in our sights are the 2021 Steelers. Their 109 attempts (T-129th) were most of the offenses in our sights, and 25 attempts (T-70th) was second-fewest to the 2023 unit. While we saw some encouraging years, there were lesser results the last three seasons, particularly 2021 and 2023.

The raw totals paint a great picture, but more context is needed. This view will look at expected points added (EPA) and success per play, gaining more context from a rates perspective:

If you have followed the series of Smith studies, his offenses have largely outshined Pittsburgh overall. We see third-and-longs are an exception, with the Steelers 2020 and 2022 offenses leading the pack with the best balance of both data points.

Most surprising was a comfortable lead in EPA, with the only two positive numbers of focused teams. 2022 was the team’s best mark in the span, ranking 30th among all qualifiers, and 2020 was close behind at 33rd. Both squads were also above the mean in success: 2020 – 31.37 (25th), 2022 – 30.00 (37th).

Smith’s best offense in this regard was similar with a 31.43 success rate for the 2021 Falcons. That was the best among focused teams and 24th in the NFL. They were above the mean in EPA (65th), but all five Smith offenses had negative numbers, unfortunately.

This included both Tennessee offenses, which were overall strong overall and I didn’t expect, and his two most recent seasons as Atlanta’s head coach, unfortunately. On the bright side, the 2023 Atlanta offense was above the mean in success, with a 26.85 number that ranked 61st.

None of the teams in our sights topped the results, but we see a rare edge going to Pittsburgh in this facet of the game. There are caveats, with several of Smith’s units limiting how often they were in the situation, which is most important in my opinion considering the low probability of converting third and longs for any team.

Hopefully limiting third and longs is something that Smith can continue putting on his resume with Pittsburgh in 2024, along with a blend of the Steelers better results once getting there. Ideally, that could make for a nice blend of outcomes this season if it comes to fruition.