Does Arkansas basketball have enough 3-point shooting? How Hogs compare to recent Final 4 teams

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas basketball had one fatal flaw in the Eric Musselman era.

For all of the Razorbacks’ accomplishments in five seasons with Musselman at the helm — including two trips to the Elite Eight — Arkansas never found a groove from long range. The Hogs were one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country over Musselman’s final three seasons, and they never ranked higher than 172 nationally in the very important statistic.

An overhauled roster and a new head coach will try to get the offense back on track this winter. John Calipari finalized his roster last week with the return of Trevon Brazile, giving Arkansas nine scholarship players. Brazile is the only returnee, joining five transfers and three incoming freshmen.

But will the Razorbacks have enough shooting to keep pace with schools that have Final Four aspirations? Here’s a look at what recent history tells us about the teams that make it all the way to college basketball’s biggest stage, and how Arkansas basketball compares entering the season.

Three-point shooting and the Final Four

Over the past five NCAA Tournaments, no team has shot worse than 34.5% from three in a season and reached the Final Four. Only two teams have dipped below the 35%-threshold, with NC State and San Diego State representing the two outliers in the last two tournaments.

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The last 20 teams to reach the Final Four averaged a 36.9% clip from three. Of the five national champions during that time frame, 2024 UConn (35.8%) had the worst 3-point shooting mark, while 2021 Baylor (41.3%) led the pack.

But percentage is only one piece of the puzzle, with sheer volume representing another important factor. Excluding the 2020-21 season when games were still being canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 11 of the last 16 Final Four teams made at least 300 threes in their respective seasons. The average number for a Final Four squad in that time was 330.1.

How does Arkansas compare?

Based on the above stats, a fair baseline for Final Four aspirations are a 35%-clip and at least 300 3-pointers made.

The six Hogs who played college basketball last season combined to shoot 35.2% from three. That number meets our guidelines, but they only combined for 126 makes, which is less than half of our benchmark.

Johnell Davis carried the load in both statistics, making 58 threes at a 41.4% clip last season. He is the only Hog to have made more than 30 threes in 2023-24. Trevon Brazile (35.3%) and Zvonimir Ivišić (37.5%) were efficient as low-volume shooters.

Of the three high-school recruits, Boogie Fland is rated the best shooter. According to 247sports, Fland shot 30% from downtown in the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, where he had a willingness to settle for difficult shots. Karter Knox and Billy Richmond could become elite offensive players if they develop their outside touch.

Reasons for optimism

On the surface, 3-point shooting looks like it could be a problem for Calipari in his first season with the Hogs. Improvement must be made across the roster, but there are grounds for a spike in the numbers.

Fland could be the key. He must arrive in Fayetteville and immediately become a threat from the outside. Richmond and Knox must also be capable from 3-point range. Three freshmen at Kentucky last year — Rob Dillingham, Reed Shephard and Justin Edwards — combined to make 170 long-distance shots under Calipari. It would be a huge boost for Arkansas if Fland, Richmond and Knox could come close to that mark.

As for the veterans, it’s easy to envision an uptick for Brazile, Ivišić and DJ Wagner. Brazile will be a full season removed from his major knee injury, while Ivišić only attempted 16 threes last year. Wagner was 29.2% from long range as a freshman. That number must rise if he’s going to be the starting point guard.

Does Arkansas basketball have enough shooting to make the Final Four? For now, the Hogs feel a bit off the mark, but marginal improvement and a surprise freshman could be enough to push the Razorbacks into more favorable territory.

This article originally appeared on Fort Smith Times Record: Do John Calipari, Arkansas basketball have enough 3-point shooting?