UFC 301 Staff Picks and Betting Predictions

MMASucka staff picks return to South America.

UFC 301 will take place later today, May 4th from the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This comes as the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first event from the venue and populous city since UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill in January of 2023 as well as the 40th trip to the country since UFC 17.5 in October of 1998.

The early preliminary card will begin at 6:00pm ET (3:00pm PT) on UFC Fight Pass followed by the regular preliminary card at 8:00pm ET (5:00pm PT) on both ESPN and ESPN+. Five fights will take place on pay-per-view at 10:00pm ET (7:00pm PT) available for purchase through ESPN+.

Results from UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg will be available here at MMASucka. Also, recap our staff picks from Friday night’s ONE Fight Night 22 event from Bangkok, Thailand.

Card Headliner

UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja will look to defend his Title against challenger Steve Erceg in the night’s main event.

Rio de Janeiro’s own Pantoja (-185) targets his second defense since becoming Champion after taking the title by split decision over Brandon Moreno in July of 2023 followed by a dominant rematch by unanimous decision last December. 28-year-old Australian Erceg (+150) gets the biggest opportunity of his career in only his fourth promotional fight as he rides an eleven-fight win streak including a second-round knockout over Matt Schnell just over two months ago.

The Flyweight title is on the line tomorrow night 🏆@PantojaMMA vs Steve Erceg

[ #UFC301 | TOMORROW | LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/sFaNFBc4Yn

— UFC (@ufc) May 3, 2024

Co-Main Event

A bantamweight battle may steal the show as Jonathan Martinez and Jose Aldo will clash through three possible five-minute rounds.

After a 4-3 start to his UFC career, Martinez (-145) has turned the tides with six consecutive victories including two 2023 wins over Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision and Adrian Yanez by leg kicks in the second. UFC Hall of Famer and former two-time Featherweight Champion Aldo (+120) makes his highly-anticipated return following a brief retirement making his first octagon walk since August of 2022.

Remaining Fights

Three matchups compose the rest of the pay-per-view including fighters like unpredictable middleweight contender Michel Pereira (-650) and scrappy light heavyweight veteran Anthony Smith (+400).

Who wins at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg? Find our picks and betting predictions further below.

Staff Picks

MMASucka staff picks are composed of four of the world’s leading mixed martial arts organizations: the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the Professional Fighters League (PFL) with Bellator MMA, ONE Championship (ONE FC), and Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).

• UFC picks will include main card fights ranging from four to six matchups per event.
• PFL and Bellator MMA see picks from main cards for pay-per-views and from tournament fights in the Regular Season, Playoffs, and Finals.
• ONE FC and DWCS picks will feature all MMA fights from the event with a minimum of three matchups.

The individual who picks the most victorious fighters by the end of 2024 will have a choice between receiving a custom-made championship belt from ProAmBelts or a detailed chain from Championship Chains. Staff picks in 2023 were won by Ben Jamieson with a record of 300-148.

Find our UFC 301 picks below.

RECORDS AFTER PFL 3 2024:

1. Nate Freeman: 94-46
2. Wesley Riddle: 89-51
3. Jeremy Brand: 85-55
4. Michael DeSantis: 84-48
5. Frazer Krohn: 82-58
6. Andrew Benjamin: 61-62
7. Lukas DeWitt: 43-31
8. Julio Monteros Jr.: 28-11
9. Michael Kachan: 19-9
10. Casey Cooper: 4-5

*Note – not all staff pick for every event*
*Note – ONE Fight Night 22 picks will be added to records NEXT weekend*

Paul Craig (17-7-1), +450
vs.
Caio Borralho (15-1, 1 NC), -650

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
– 185 LBS. ~ 83.9 KG. –

Jeremy Brand: Borralho via Unanimous Decision
Wesley Riddle: Borralho via Round 2 TKO
Michael DeSantis: Borralho via Unanimous Decision
Andrew Benjamin: Craig via Round 3 SUB
Frazer Krohn: Borralho via Round 3 TKO
Nate Freeman: Borralho via Round 2 TKO

Staff picking Craig: 1
Staff picking Borralho: 5

Michel Pereira (30-11, 2 NC), -650
vs.
Ihor Potieria (20-5), +450

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION
– 185 LBS. ~ 83.9 KG. –

Jeremy Brand: Pereira via Round 2 SUB
Wesley Riddle: Pereira via Round 1 TKO
Michael DeSantis: Pereira via Round 1 TKO
Andrew Benjamin: Pereira via Round 1 TKO
Frazer Krohn: Pereira via Round 1 TKO
Nate Freeman: Pereira via Round 1 SUB

Staff picking Pereira: 6
Staff picking Potieria: 0

Anthony Smith (37-19), +400
vs.
Vitor Petrino (11-0), -550

LIGHT HEAYVWEIGHT DIVISION
– 205 LBS. ~ 93.0 KG. –

Jeremy Brand: Petrino via Round 1 TKO
Wesley Riddle: Petrino via Round 2 TKO
Michael DeSantis: Petrino via Round 2 TKO
Andrew Benjamin: Petrino via Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Petrino via Round 2 TKO
Nate Freeman: Petrino via Unanimous Decision

Staff picking Smith: 0
Staff picking Petrino: 6

Jose Aldo (31-8), +120
vs.
Jonathan Martinez (19-4), -145

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION
– CO-MAIN EVENT –
– 135 LBS. ~ 61.2 KG. –

Jeremy Brand: Martinez via Unanimous Decision
Wesley Riddle: Aldo via Split Decision
Michael DeSantis: Aldo via Split Decision
Andrew Benjamin: Aldo via Split Decision
Frazer Krohn: Martinez via Unanimous Decision
Nate Freeman: Martinez via Unanimous Decision

Staff picking Aldo: 3
Staff picking Martinez: 3

Alexandre Pantoja (27-5), -185
vs.
Steve Erceg (12-1), +150

FLYWEIGHT DIVISIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
– MAIN EVENT –
– 185 LBS. ~ 83.9 KG. –

Jeremy Brand: Erceg via Round 2 SUB
Wesley Riddle: Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Michael DeSantis: Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Andrew Benjamin: Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Frazer Krohn: Pantoja via Round 5 SUB
Nate Freeman: Pantoja via Split Decision

Staff picking Pantoja: 5
Staff picking Erceg: 1

UFC 301 FEATURED IMAGE:

Embed from Getty Images