2024 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances

We’re through Week 6 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is months away, we’re taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here’s everything you need right now.

Last update: Oct. 15 at 10 a.m. ET

Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC

Projecting the AFC playoff field

Four teams in the NFL have a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs, and they all play in the AFC. The Chiefs are over 99%, the Bills are at 95%, the Ravens are at 94% and the Texans sit at 93%.

Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch, too. The Chiefs are at 94% to win the AFC West, while the Texans are 83% to claim the AFC South. Then the Ravens are 71% in the AFC North, while the Bills climbed to 86% in the AFC East after their Monday night win over the Jets.

The Patriots sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances (less than 1%), but the Browns (3%) and Jaguars (5%) are right there with them.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

Two NFC North teams lead the conference here — the Lions and Vikings both have 86% odds to make the postseason. Could we see all four NFC North teams in the playoffs? The Bears (42%) have the lowest chances of the four teams. (The Packers are 66%.)

Remember when the Saints had the best chances to make the playoffs after Week 2? They were 81%. Now? Just 15%! And check out the Cowboys all the way down at 20% after falling to 3-3.

The Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL in odds to make the playoffs, checking in with less than a 1% chance. The Giants have a 4% chance to make the postseason.

NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)