10 college football predictions, from Week 1 to CFP national champion pick

LSU plays No. 23 USC in a neutral-site game in Las Vegas, and the teams have some eerie similarities. Both teams are replacing Heisman-winning quarterbacks and trying to fix disastrous defensive units.

Miller Moss (USC) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) get the nod as starting quarterbacks after promising bowl game appearances last season.

With linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. returning and Kyren Lacy poised to take over the mantle as the next great LSU wide receiver, the Tigers will start the season in unfamiliar territory: 1-0.

Colorado misses bowl game: The Buffaloes lost six in a row to end 2023 after a 4-2 start. Unless Colorado’s defense and offensive line have drastically improved, it should be more of the same in Year 2 under head coach Deion Sanders. 

Colorado plays five preseason top-25 teams in its first year back in the Big 12, plus rivalry games against Nebraska and Colorado State on the road in consecutive weeks.

Even with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter among the top players in the sport this year, the Buffaloes have a mountain to climb to finish the regular season bowl-eligible.

Nebraska makes bowl game: Conversely, the Cornhuskers will snap their seven-year bowl drought with hyped freshman Dylan Raiola taking over at starting quarterback. The five-star recruit originally committed to Georgia before changing course to become the highest-profile addition of the Matt Rhule era.

With the quarterback upgrade, the Cornhuskers should have an improved offense. They also return several key pieces to a defense that ranked 13th in points allowed (18.3) and 11th in total defense (303.5 yards per game) a season ago.

Florida has another losing season: Gators head coach Billy Napier is entering his third season and might need a winning campaign to make it to Year 4. Unfortunately, Florida’s schedule is college football’s most daunting, including five games against preseason top 25 teams in November. For the first time since the 1930s, Florida will have four consecutive losing seasons.

Michigan misses the playoff: The Wolverines’ 2023 championship celebration will be short-lived. No. 9 Michigan has replaced several key contributors from a season ago, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, wide receiver Roman Wilson, cornerback Mike Sainristil and linebacker Michael Barrett, as well as head coach Jim Harbaugh.

The roster upheaval and a challenging schedule, including games against Associated Press No. 4 Texas, No. 23 USC, No. 3 Oregon, and No. 2 Ohio State, will keep Michigan from defending its title in the expanded playoff.

Utah wins Big 12: Utah is entering its first season in the Big 12, but that shouldn’t be an issue for a program that deftly transitioned from the Mountain West Conference to the Pac-12 in 2011.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Cam Rising, who missed all of 2023 (knee) after leading the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 championships (2021 and 2022), returns. He’ll be a steadying force for No. 12 Utah as it takes over in a conference with a vacated throne following the departures of Oklahoma and Texas.

Missouri is the first team out of the College Football Playoff: The Tigers have a soft out-of-conference schedule featuring games against Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and UMass. Their toughest game is an Oct. 26 road date against No. 5 Alabama, but they finish the season with games against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State, teams predicted to finish 13th-15th in the 16-team SEC.

No. 11 Missouri could breeze to the conference championship weekend, which could make or break its playoff hopes. With few chances to prove itself against quality opponents in the regular season, Missouri might be unable to afford a decisive loss in the SEC title game.

Georgia QB Carson Beck, Texas QB Quinn Ewers and Miami (FL) QB Cameron Ward are the Heisman finalists: Beck was overshadowed by the exceptional talent around him last season, but with tight end Brock Bowers, wide receiver Ladd McConkey and running back Daijun Edwards among the players to depart for the NFL Draft, he’ll have the spotlight to himself to emerge as the face of the No. 1 team in the country.

Ewers became even more important to Texas this offseason after the Longhorns’ running back depth took a hit with injuries to starter CJ Baxter and backup Christian Clark. 

Ward transferred to No. 19 Miami during the offseason after two spectacular seasons at Washington State. He’ll benefit from a strong Hurricanes offensive line that features three returning starters and Indiana transfer center Zach Carpenter. 

Group of Five champion gets blown out in first-round of CFP: The stakes are high for the Group of Five (AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, Sunbelt) [G5] over the next two seasons. With the future format of the CFP in doubt, the mid-majors need wins in the expanded playoff to prove they deserve an automatic berth.

“There is fear that access and distribution for the G5 may be short-lived,” wrote Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger on Aug. 15.

The transfer portal has already drastically shifted the calculus in college football to the point where Group of Five colleges act as farm systems for the four power conferences — ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

In a likely 12-vs.-5-seed first-round playoff game as the road team against the top automatic qualifier, the Group-of-Five representative in this year’s CFP will have the odds stacked against it, which will be too much to overcome.

Ohio State wins the national championship: ESPN’s Jim Trotter wrote about the Buckeyes’ $20 million “championship or bust” roster.

No. 2 Ohio State not only returns several prominent seniors but added elite transfer-portal talent, including former Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins and Alabama defensive back Caleb Downs.

The Buckeyes also added quarterback Will Howard, who led Kansas State to a Big 12 title in 2022.

But wide receiver Emeka Egbuka put it bluntly in Trotter’s ESPN article, saying, “Nobody on this team has won a big game in their career at Ohio State.”

“We’ve got to win every single game — no ifs, and or buts about it,” said cornerback Denzel Burke.

The Buckeyes understand the assignment: anything less than a championship will not do. Ohio State has the roster to complete its high-wire act.