Startup Kompany: Bayern’s Bold Gamble Appears to Be on the Money

Ahead of Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday, we take a look at Vincent Kompany’s solid start to life in the Bundesliga.

When Xabi Alonso was appointed Bayer Leverkusen boss in October 2022, few anticipated the meteoric rise that followed. Die Werkself ended Bayern Munich’s 11-year stranglehold on the Bundesliga title in 2023-24, winning it by an impressive 17 points, and finishing 18 ahead of third-placed Bayern.

After parting ways with Thomas Tuchel, Bayern needed to regroup and find their own Alonso. So, they too turned to a former pro who had played at the highest level for the best teams, but had cut his managerial teeth away from the game’s elite (no offence, Burnley). It could have just been a coincidence, but there was definitely a feeling that they were trying to follow Leverkusen’s lead.

The parallels between Vincent Kompany and Alonso didn’t stop there. As Alonso did at Real Sociedad B, Kompany took Burnley to promotion by playing a carefully cultivated style of football, before being relegated in somewhat inevitable fashion the following season.

People questioned why someone who was relegated with Burnley had been handed one of the biggest jobs in football, but given the difference in stature of the clubs, it seemed apparent Bayern were judging the process more than the results.

The same questions were asked of Alonso after he’d been relegated from Spain’s second tier, but the commitment to his tactical vision coupled with the experience of handling the biggest stages as a player worked for him and Leverkusen, so why not for Kompany and Bayern too? The Belgian had plenty of doubters on his arrival in the summer, but he couldn’t have really made a better start to life in Munich.

Four Bundesliga games have produced four wins for Kompany, and his top-of-the-table Bayern have scored 16 goals and conceded just three. It’s a small sample size, but no team in Europe’s top five leagues is averaging as many as Bayern’s four goals per game.

Saturday sees Bayern Munich host Bayer Leverkusen at the Allianz Arena, already with a three-point lead over the defending champions and with a chance to double that on home soil.

Kompany and Alonso faced each other seven times during their playing careers. The former won the most recent meeting in November 2014, winning 3-2 in the UEFA Champions League with Manchester City against Alonso when, coincidentally, he played for Bayern.

With four wins from four and a goal difference of +13, Bayern have enjoyed the joint-best start to a season in Bundesliga history. Only Stuttgart in 1996-97 and Bayern themselves in 2016-17 have ever matched that record.

In fact, Kompany could become only the second Bayern coach this century after Carlo Ancelotti to win each of his first five Bundesliga games. Only four coaches in Bundesliga history have won their first five in the competition: Branko Zebec (with Bayern in 1968), Willi Entenmann (with Stuttgart in 1986), André Schubert (with Borussia Mönchengladbach in 2015) and Ancelotti (with Bayern in 2016).

It hasn’t just been in the league where Kompany has made a fast start, either. In his first ever Champions League game as a manager, he saw his Bayern side become the first in history to score nine goals in a single game in the competition. Their 9-2 victory over Dinamo Zagreb didn’t quite break the record for the biggest Champions League win, but it was certainly a statement victory.

In all competitions (including a 4-0 win at Ulm in the DFB-Pokal), Bayern have scored 29 goals in 2024-25 – a new club record for the first six competitive matches for a new Bayern boss in the Bundesliga era (since 1962).

In fact, Bayern have scored at least five goals in each of their last three competitive games (20 in total), something they had only previously achieved in 1976 and 2012 since promotion to the Bundesliga, and never in more games in a row.

More than a third of their 29 goals have come from Harry Kane. The England striker has 10 in six games, four of which came in the rout of Dinamo Zagreb. Kane became just the fourth Bayern player to score four goals in a Champions League match, after Mario Gomez, Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski.

He also has four assists to his name, meaning Kane has 14 goal involvements already in just six games. It should be noted that five of his 10 goals have come from the penalty spot, but still, he’s showing no signs of letting up after his fantastic debut season in Germany when he recorded 44 goals and 12 assists in 45 games.

The 31-year-old has had a hand in a league-high nine goals in the Bundesliga this season (5G 4A). Since detailed data collection began in 2004-05, only Lewandowski in 2020-21 has directly contributed to more goals across the opening four matchdays of a Bundesliga season (10).

And Kompany and Kane aren’t the only imports from the Premier League making impressive strides for the Bavarian club in the Bundesliga this season. Michael Olise arrived from Crystal Palace in the summer and has taken to life in Munich like a duck to water, or an ente to wasser.

The France international already has eight goal involvements to his name, with five goals and three assists in six appearances. His best showing yet came in Saturday’s 5-0 thrashing of Werder Bremen, with Olise having a hand in four of the goals (2G 2A).

Only Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz (16) has created more than Olise’s 13 chances from open play in the Bundesliga this season, while no other Bayern player has created more than eight (Kane). Olise also leads the team for overall expected assists (2.2), demonstrating that he’s been a crucial creative threat thus far.

Kompany said of Olise after the win in Bremen: “His start at Bayern couldn’t be much better. He has to keep going this way. I haven’t got the feeling that he’s a player who feels much pressure. He just enjoys football.”

Olise is second only to Jamal Musiala (32) of Bayern players for the number of open-play shot-ending attacking sequences he has been involved in (27) in the Bundesliga. He’s not just there to ease into life at a giant club, he’s embracing the challenge of being a key player.

Kompany’s first Bundesliga game in charge ended in victory, but a tricky 3-2 win at Wolfsburg where Bayern had to come from 2-1 down suggested it might not be a straightforward quest in regaining the title from Leverkusen. However, a 2-0 home win over Freiburg was followed by 11 goals in two away games, winning 6-1 at Holstein Kiel and 5-0 at Bremen.

Bayern haven’t just been dominant in attack. In last weekend’s game at Weserstadion, Bremen did not attempt a single shot; it was the first time they had failed to record a shot in a Bundesliga game since facing Bayern in October 2014. Bayern’s 24 shots faced overall is at least 16 fewer than any other Bundesliga team (Borussia Dortmund – 40).

It will be no surprise to anyone who watched Kompany’s Burnley that Bayern are dominating the ball, averaging 69.4% possession. Apart from Paris Saint-Germain (69.8%), no other team in Europe’s top five leagues have averaged more than 64.8% (Man City). Their 5.8 passes per sequence (only PSG 6.1 have more in Europe’s top five leagues) also indicates how well they are looking after the ball and how keen they are to string long passages of play together.

Their balance in attack has also been impressive, with a very even split across the the pitch.

Off the ball, Bayern’s 9.9 passes per defensive action (PPDA) is the lowest in the Bundesliga. PPDA is calculated by dividing the number of passes made by the opposing team by the number of defensive actions made by the team in possession. A lower PPDA indicates a more aggressive pressing style, while a higher PPDA indicates a more passive style.

Bayern’s league-low PPDA suggests Kompany has his men pressing actively and effectively, while the fact they have recorded the joint-most shot-ending high turnovers (winning the ball within 40m of the opposition’s goal line and having a shot at goal) with Stuttgart (7) shows they’re using the ball well once they’ve won it back.

It must be said that they have been overperforming in front of goal, which might not be surprising for a team that features Kane, Olise, Gnabry and Jamal Musiala. Their 16 Bundesliga goals have come from an expected goals total (xG) of just 10.3, and they have scored three more than Leverkusen from a lower xG total.

With the talent Bayern have, though, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll revert back to their xG average. Their 94 league goals last season came from 87 xG, and Kane is one of the very few players in the modern game who has consistently proven he can outperform his underlying numbers in front of goal.

It has been a good start for Kompany, but that’s all it is; a start. Bayern’s meeting with Leverkusen on Saturday will be more of a litmus test, particularly as the champions, defeat to RB Leipzig aside, have looked strong again in the early weeks of 2024-25.

The sceptics will still need convincing but should Kompany secure a win over Alonso in their first meeting on the touchline, it could go a long way to winning over those doubters.

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