Yes, it’s a rather remote possibility. Then again, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both have made a habit of beating the odds to achieve extremely rare or even unprecedented feats. So would you really count them out?
The two MVP Award favorites are in similar positions. Both have home run and RBI titles locked up. Each trails his league’s batting average leader by seven points heading into the final three games of the season. Both races also have a third competitor who remains a threat. In addition, Judge’s Yankees and Ohtani’s Dodgers both clinched division titles and first-round byes on Thursday night, thereby giving both players an opportunity to potentially get a day of rest.
Here is a closer look at the math behind each player’s late Triple Crown charge.
Let’s set aside Guerrero, because, with he and Judge in a virtual tie, the situation between them is pretty simple: Judge just needs to out-hit Guerrero the rest of the way.
For Judge vs. Witt, let’s break out some rough math.
• If Judge goes 5-for-7 (finishing at .3298) … he would win if Witt went no better than 2-for-12 (finishing at .3292).
• If Judge goes 4-for-7 (finishing at .3280) … he would win if Witt went no better than 1-for-12 (finishing at .3276).
• If Judge goes 3-for-7 (finishing at .3262) … he would win if Witt went 0-for-12 (finishing at .3261).
As you can see, Ohtani’s chances are lower than Judge’s, based on the fact that he is five points behind second place, rather than in a virtual tie. So we’ll include Ozuna in our math problem.
• If Ohtani goes 6-for-9 (finishing at .3106) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 2-for-9 (finishing at .3103) AND Ozuna goes no better than 6-for-18 (finishing at .3102).
• If Ohtani goes 5-for-9 (finishing at .3090) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 1-for-9 (finishing at .3088) AND Ozuna goes no better than 5-for-18 (finishing at .3086).
• If Ohtani goes 4-for-9 (finishing at .3074) … he would win if Arraez goes 0-for-9 (.3072) AND Ozuna goes no better than 4-for-18 (.3069).
Obviously, the range of possible outcomes is much wider than that, but the key point here is this: Either player could snatch a Triple Crown with a strong final series — and some help from their competitors’ opposing pitchers.
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