Seattle vs. Detroit Predictions | Opta Analyst

The Seahawks are one of only five unbeaten teams in the NFL, but they’ll face perhaps their toughest test yet against another NFC contender in Detroit on Monday Night Football.

The Seattle Seahawks were Pete Carroll’s team for 14 years, and he led them to 11 winning seasons, two Super Bowl appearances and one championship.

Seattle has entered a new era, however, and Mike Macdonald’s tenure is off to a torrid start.

Like Carroll, Macdonald is a defensive-minded coach, and he has the Seahawks playing championship-level defense during the team’s 3-0 start.

Macdonald and the Seahawks are likely to face their stiffest test yet in NFL Week 4 when they travel to Ford Field to face Dan Campbell’s Lions on ABC’s Monday Night Football.

Macdonald served as the defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens for the previous two seasons, guiding them to top-three finishes in points allowed per game in both years and giving him a head-coaching opportunity at 37 years old.

It is no surprise that Macdonald’s contributions have been felt immediately, but the early results have been even better than expected.

Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-low 3.91 yards per play and forcing three-and-outs on 42.1% of opponents’ drives, also tops in the NFL.

Largest Decrease in Opp. Net Passing Yards Per Game 2023-24

1. -100.7 – Seattle Seahawks (233.0-132.3)
2. -100.3 – Denver Broncos (233.6-133.3)
3. -88.1 – Tennessee Titans (227.4-139.3)
4. -80.1 – Cincinnati Bengals (248.4-168.3)
5. -74.5 – Los Angeles Chargers (249.8-175.3)

Largest Decrease in Opp. Total Net Yards Per Game 2023-24

1.  -122.7 – Seattle Seahawks (371.4-248.7)
2. -113.1 – Pittsburgh Steelers (342.1-229.0)
3. -111.5 – Denver Broncos (370.8-259.3)
4. -95.9 – Los Angeles Chargers (362.9-267.0)
5. -71.4 – Tennessee Titans (335.1-263.7)

Macdonald has been able to confuse opposing offenses to get pressure on the quarterback, and he’s typically done it without needing additional rushers. The Seahawks have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 50.8% of passing plays, despite blitzing at a below-average rate of 26.7%.

Seattle’s defense has seemingly transformed itself into an elite unit overnight, ranking No. 1 in defensive EVE. Our EVE (efficiency vs. expected) model measures the average yards gained or prevented by a team compared to the league-wide projected yards in the given situation.

The Seahawks have done enough offensively to jump atop the NFC West, but after beating the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and a Miami Dolphins team starting a backup quarterback, the schedule is about to intensify.

The Lions are 2-1 to start the season, with all three games decided by one score. They rebounded from a Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 20-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.

The Lions are considered 3.5-point favorites by sportsbook consensus NFL picks, and our prediction model also says they’re the best bets, giving the hosts a 61.3% chance of improving to 3-1.

Detroit’s Key: Run Wild

After ranking third in overall success rate last season, Detroit’s offense has been a little uneven through the first three weeks of 2024. While the Lions rank fourth in the league with a 46.7% success rate this season, there have been other noticeable drop-offs.

The Lions are averaging 20.7 points per game this season, compared to 27.1 last season, and much of that dip can be attributed to the inconsistent play of Jared Goff.

Goff has thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions this season and has a passer rating of 79.2 after last year’s 97.9 rating. Only inexperienced QBs Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos and Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts have thrown more passes we deem as “pickable” than Goff’s seven so far.

Lions Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Jared Goff: 22.5 completions on 35.8 attempts for 253.4 yards with 1.4 TDs and 0.6 INTs
• David Montgomery: 15.4 rushes for 68.6 yards with 0.7 TDs
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 12.1 receptions for 54.6 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
• Jameson Williams: 4.5 receptions for 68.4 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6.2 receptions for 71.2 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Sam LaPorta: 2.7 receptions for 27.8 yards with 0.2 TDs

But Goff is coming off his best start of the young season, throwing a pair of touchdown passes against Arizona, and he has proven himself over several years to be an above-average starter with a talented team around him.

One key factor for the passing game has been the deep ball to Jameson Williams, who had catches for 52 and 50 yards in the team’s first two games and is averaging 19.0 yards per reception. He’s also seventh in the league with 297 burn yards. A burn occurs when the targeted receiver does his part to achieve a successful play (that is, a significant gain towards a first down or touchdown), regardless of the quality of the throw by the quarterback.

Williams ranks second in the NFL with 12.45 expected yards per target when lined up in the slot, where he will likely face a tough matchup in versatile Seattle cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The second-year DB has given up a burn on 23.1% of his targets, less than half of the 49.0% league average for corners.

Opp. Passer Rating on Attempts 21+ Air Yards

• 0.0 – Buffalo Bills         
• 0.0 – Denver Broncos        
• 2.4 – Seattle Seahawks    
• 7.8 – Detroit Lions        
• 11.1 – Minnesota Vikings    

With a passing game that is still trying to find its groove facing Seattle’s stingy secondary, the Lions may be best served by leaning on their strong offensive line and the best running back duo in the league.

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have combined for 568 yards from scrimmage in three games and have scored five of the team’s seven offensive touchdowns.

Detroit has a success rate of 49.5% on designed runs, ranking second in the league. Both backs are among the top-10 qualifiers in yards per carry after contact, and Montgomery is tied for fourth among running backs with 12 missed tackles forced.

There will be games later this season that will require Goff and the passing game to shine, but Monday’s tilt seems like a good opportunity to stay physical on the ground, even with starting center Frank Ragnow ruled out due to a pectoral injury.

Seattle’s Key: Contain Aidan Hutchinson

While the defense has been the Seahawks’ star unit so far this season, the offense has been steady, contributing 26, 23 and 24 points in the team’s three games.

Feature running back Kenneth Walker III has missed the last two games with an oblique injury after a 100-yard performance in the opener, but he returned to practice Thursday and may have a chance to face the Lions.

Zach Charbonnet was promoted to a full-time workload the last two NFL games, and while he has three touchdowns, he is averaging just 3.53 rushing yards per carry.

Walker’s potential return could boost Seattle’s running game, but this week’s matchup favors a more pass-friendly approach.

The Lions rank second in the league with a run success rate allowed of 24.1%, and Seattle’s offense is in the bottom third of the league by gaining 2.2 yards per carry before contact.

Pct of Opp. Rushes Gaining 4+ Yds

1. 35.8 – Baltimore Ravens 
2. 37.3 – Jacksonville Jaguars    
3. 38.7 – Miami Dolphins       
4. 38.8 – Green Bay Packers       
5. 40.6 – Detroit Lions

So underdog Seattle may be forced to throw a fair amount in this game, leaning on Geno Smith and his talented trio of receivers.

Smith threw a pair of interceptions in last week’s win over Miami, but he has been mostly reliable this season with a 79.1 expected competition percentage – fifth among qualified quarterbacks.

Detroit’s pass defense rates slightly below average, with an opponents’ success rate of 42.2%. There could be some nice matchups for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, who already has touchdown catches of 56 and 71 yards this season.

The success of the Seahawks offensively on Monday may hinge on their ability to block star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. The former No. 2 overall pick leads the NFL with 6.5 sacks and has an additional six tackles for loss.

Seahawks Player Projections (as of Friday)

• Geno Smith: 22.7 completions on 33.8 attempts for 255.0 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.7 INTs
• Zach Charbonnet: 18.6 rushes for 78.5 yards with 0.9 TDs
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6.6 receptions for 74.2 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• DK Metcalf: 4.6 receptions for 56.3 yards with 0.5 touchdowns
• Tyler Lockett: 3.8 receptions for 44.0 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Noah Fant: 2.6 receptions for 31.1 yards and 0.2 TDs

The Seahawks rank 27th in pressure rate allowed, with Smith feeling the heat on 48.7% of his drop backs. They will need to be much better than that on Monday to keep Hutchinson from wreaking havoc. Seattle fans can take heart in Charles Cross, who has allowed the fourth-lowest pressure rate (6.3%) among left tackles this year.

If Seattle can contain Hutchinson and protect Smith, there could be some big plays available in the passing game en route to another win and an increase in its playoff chances.

If Detroit can control both lines of scrimmage, however, Montgomery and Gibbs could see a heavy workload, Hutchinson could be rushing to protect a lead, and the Lions could hand the Seahawks their first loss of the season in the national spotlight.

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