Iowa or South Carolina? Our experts pick the national championship

The Athletic has live coverage of Iowa vs. South Carolina in the women’s national championship game.

The tournament ends Sunday night in Cleveland with the matchup so many — including ESPN executives — were rooting to see. South Carolina (the best defense! the best coach!) faces Iowa (the best offense! the best player!) in a showdown that could draw record viewership. (Again.)

Did witnessing Iowa upset the Gamecocks in the Final Four last season influence our experts’ picks? Will they go with the betting favorite, South Carolina? Or bank on Clark and Co. to continue to surprise and thrill us.

For the Final Four, our writers picked correctly. (Well, they did in all but one game. And that writer will be absolved simply because boldness should be rewarded.) We’ll have our full crew of The Athletic reporters courtside in Cleveland, so be sure to follow along on our live blog leading up to tipoff and throughout the game.

Now, let’s see who Scott Dochterman, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, Ben Pickman and Cameron Teague Robinson take.

Dochterman

I picked South Carolina to beat Iowa three weeks ago, and I’m sticking with it now. The Gamecocks are too deep, talented, efficient and motivated. I’d expect South Carolina to be more than prepared for Caitlin Clark, and the Gamecocks have too many pieces at too many key spots. As Iowa associate head coach Jan Jensen said, “We’ve got to play really, really well — like we did last year — and they’ve got to be a little bit off.”

The pick: South Carolina 82, Iowa 71

All the fun was had 🤩 pic.twitter.com/xcS10vkEb0

— South Carolina Women’s Basketball (@GamecockWBB) April 6, 2024

Jennings

I’m torn on this because I’ve been in multiple arenas for so many special Caitlin Clark moments these last few seasons, and that kind of makes me just assume those will happen again. So part of my brain says the most realistic thing is that Clark will carry Iowa to its first national title ending for Iowa. However, basketball is a game of X’s and O’s and I simply can’t ignore the Gamecocks’ advantage in the paint. With how well South Carolina has shot the ball from long range this season, the Hawkeyes can’t expect to be trading 3s for 2s like they might’ve thought last season. South Carolina is too deep, too balanced, too good to lose this one.

The pick: South Carolina 85, Iowa 79

Merchant

Considering how well it went the last time I picked against South Carolina, I’m not going to make that mistake again. The Gamecocks will avenge last season’s loss to the Hawkeyes by pounding the ball inside and owning the glass, completing the 10th undefeated season in NCAA history as Dawn Staley moves to 3-0 in national title games.

The pick: South Carolina 84, Iowa 75

Pickman

A lot was written and said about Iowa avenging its loss to LSU in the Elite Eight. South Carolina now has a chance to enact its own revenge on the Hawkeyes in Sunday’s national championship. I’m picking South Carolina, though, not because of the revenge factor but because of the difficulty involved in preparing for the Gamecocks and stopping them. Because of their depth, any player (or two, or three players) can pop on any given night. It makes the Gamecocks especially hard to strategize against. Iowa star Caitlin Clark has created a frenzy all season and has been the biggest story in the sport. But South Carolina will etch its name among the very best teams in college basketball history with a title.

The pick: South Carolina 78, Iowa 72

Cameron Teague Robinson

I can’t pick against South Carolina right now. The Gamecocks are too deep and too athletic. Ashlyn Watkins is going to be a massive part of this game if South Carolina wins. She’ll have to do a lot of the dirty work. I’m not sure Iowa can stop Kamilla Cardoso, but I think Dawn Staley can find a way to at least slow down Caitlin Clark when it matters most. I think this is going to be a great game, though, and come down to the wire.

The pick: South Carolina 81, Iowa 75

One final practice 💛#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/MRHTySHvDb

— Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB) April 6, 2024

(Photos of Caitlin Clark and Ashlyn Watkins: Steph Chambers / Getty Images, Andy Lyons / Getty Images)