Bills vs. Ravens Predictions | Opta Analyst

After a much-needed win, the Ravens return home for another tough task against the unbeaten Bills roll into Baltimore. We reveal our keys, win probability and player projections for the big Sunday Night Football clash.

It’s been smooth sailing so far for the Buffalo Bills, who continue to emphatically rewrite the preseason narrative suggesting a team headed toward decline.

The ride has been quite a bit bumpier for the Baltimore Ravens, though the reigning AFC North champions proved last week it’s way too early to write them off as well.

After rising to the occasion with a potentially season-saving victory against another 2023 division winner, the Ravens return home for another daunting challenge when the unbeaten Bills roll into M&T Bank Stadium for an NBC Sunday Night Football showdown about as big as it can get for late September.

Pegged by many pundits (ourselves included) as due for a bit of a reset following a sizable offseason roster overhaul, the Bills have more than defied those more modest expectations with a 3-0 start punctuated by back-to-back blowout wins over the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars by a combined 78-20 score.

With quarterback Josh Allen playing like an early MVP front-runner and Buffalo playing like a Super Bowl contender, our No. 1 ranked overall team in EVE (efficiency vs. expected) looks well on its way toward extending its streak of postseason appearances to six seasons.

Things haven’t come nearly as easy for the Ravens, who literally lost by a toenail in Kansas City in the NFL Kickoff Game and blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning home defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders the following week.

John Harbaugh’s battle-tested crew showed its mettle, however, with last Sunday’s 28-25 road win over the wayward Dallas Cowboys, a much-needed result that has Baltimore back on track for a sixth playoff trip in the seven-year Lamar Jackson era according to our projection model.

Despite their inconsistency, the Ravens still figure to provide Buffalo with its sternest test to date this season with their third-ranked offense in EVE and a Jackson/Derrick Henry running game that’s been pummeling the competition.

Our model gives Baltimore a 57.9% chance of ending the Bills’ eight-game regular-season winning streak dating back to December, and the sportsbooks currently have the Ravens as a slight favorite as well.

This nationally-televised matchup not only features two of the NFL’s most successful teams in recent years, but the two best quarterbacks of the 2018 draft class in Allen and the two-time league MVP Jackson (though the 2024 version of Sam Darnold is doing his best to catch up with his unforeseen resurrection).

HIGHEST WINNING% FOR ACTIVE QBs SINCE 2018 (MIN. 20 STARTS)

1. 76-22 (.776) – Patrick Mahomes                   
2. 18-6 (.750) – Brock Purdy                     
3. 59-21 (.738) – Lamar Jackson                   
4. 66-30 (.688) – Josh Allen                            
5. 36-18 (.667) – Jalen Hurts       

The presence of the two star quarterbacks is one factor why this showdown has the second-highest SmartRating (71) on the NFL Week 4 slate behind only Monday’s intriguing Seattle Seahawks-Detroit Lions clash.

The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (dull), 40-64 (OK), 65-84 (good), 85-100 (great).

Baltimore’s pass defense has shown some holes early on, ones it’ll need to shore up with Josh Allen off to a near-flawless start.

In our breakdown of last week’s Jacksonville-Buffalo game, we pointed out that the Bills were then 54-9 (a winning percentage of .857) since 2019 when rushing for 100 or more yards in a game and 38-7 (including playoffs) over that period when Allen attempts 32 passes or fewer.

The Bills met both those thresholds in their 47-10 annihilation of the Jaguars, finishing with 122 yards on the ground with Allen throwing 30 times as Buffalo sat on the ball the entire second half with a huge lead.

Hitting the century mark may take some doing this week, though, as Baltimore’s defense has been smothering against the run thus far. The Ravens have surrendered the fewest total rushing yards (50.0 per game), the second-fewest yards before contact (1.4 per play), the lowest percentage of successful run plays (20.4) and the lowest rate of rushes of 10-plus yards at 1.9%.

Defending the pass has been another matter for first-year coordinator Zach Orr’s unit, and especially so late in games. After the Raiders scored 13 unanswered points over the final 9-plus minutes to pull out an unexpected Week 2 win via a Gardner Minshew-inspired comeback, the Ravens very nearly squandered a 28-6 lead after three quarters last Sunday as Dak Prescott led Dallas to 19 straight fourth-quarter points.

Prescott threw for a staggering 187 yards in the fourth quarter, while Minshew amassed 212 in the second half.

MOST NET PASSING YARDS ALLOWED IN FOURTH QUARTER 

1. 363 – Baltimore Ravens              
2. 282 – Minnesota Vikings               
3. 245 – Kansas City Chiefs              
4. 232 – Washington Commanders    
5. 224 – Philadelphia Eagles          

Baltimore has been plagued by a lack of pass rush, as it ranks 29th in pressure rate (30.5%) and has received little consistency in that area beyond veteran edge Kyle Van Noy, who’s logged 4.0 sacks over the last two weeks despite playing through a fractured orbital bone.

That deficiency has led to the secondary allowing way too many chunk plays while being worn down under the increased stress. The Ravens have allowed a league-high 10 passes of 25 or more yards through three games, and an alarming nine of those have come in the second half.

The Bills haven’t displayed a whole lot of quick-strike ability during their 3-0 start, but their ultra-efficient short passing approach could pose some more problems for Baltimore.

Bills Player Projections (as of Wednesday)

• Josh Allen: 24.3 completions on 37.6 attempts for 276.4 yards with 1.6 TDs and 0.7 INTs; 40.4 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing TDs
• James Cook: 13.2 rushes for 59.6 yards with 0.3 TDs
• Khalil Shakir: 3.9 receptions for 60.1 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Keon Coleman: 3.0 receptions for 34.9 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Dalton Kincaid: 5.0 receptions for 51.7 yards with 0.4 touchdowns

Allen is averaging just 6.66 air yards per attempt, which sits in the lower end among qualified quarterbacks and is by far the lowest mark of his seven-year career. He’s also completing a career-high 75.0% of his throws over three straight interception-free games, is tied for third overall in well-thrown percentage (90.0), and enters the week atop the league with a 133.7 passer rating.

Buffalo destroyed the Jaguars with underneath throws on Monday Night Football, with Allen going a crisp 22 of 28 for 247 yards and four touchdowns during a sensational first half in which the Bills reached the end zone on all five of their possessions. Over 70% of Buffalo’s receiving yards for the game occurred after the catch, another category where the Ravens have often struggled on defense.

The Bills have two players who excel in the short areas in slot wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, a duo that’s combined to haul in 22 of 25 targets from Allen through the first three games. Shakir is a perfect 14 for 14 in a follow-up to a late 2023 breakout in which he led all wideouts with 50-plus targets in open rate (91.2%) and was second in burn percentage (73.7).

Baltimore may be able to lessen Shakir’s impact by stationing its best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, in the slot. But Kincaid, among the top at his position in open percentage during his strong 2023 rookie campaign, presents a potential matchup problem for a Ravens defense that’s had a lot of trouble neutralizing tight ends this season.

HIGHEST OPEN% AMONG TEs IN 2023 (MIN. 50 TARGETS)

1. 89.5% – Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars               
2. 88.9% – Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens             
3. 86.8% – Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans          
4. 85.3% – Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills            
5. 84.9% – Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers      

Baltimore has permitted the second-highest total of receptions (23), receiving yards (280) and targets (31) to tight ends in the NFL, with Raiders rookie standout Brock Bowers (nine catches on nine targets for 98 yards) and Dallas’ Jake Ferguson (six catches for 95 yards) both having highly productive afternoons in their encounters with the Ravens over the previous two weeks.

Kincaid, by the way, rates as one of the top tight end plays of the week according to our fantasy projection rankings, and the model is predicting another big game from Allen as well.

Buffalo’s run defense has yet to be truly tested. It will this week as it faces a Baltimore rushing attack that’s been absolutely rocking.

The Ravens have been great at preventing yards on the ground, and even better at churning them out. They’ve outgained the opposition by a margin of 460 rushing yards (610 to 150) thus far, the highest differential by any team through three games in a season since Baltimore generated a disparity of plus-469 yards during Jackson’s first MVP campaign in 2019 (a year the Ravens went 14-2, mind you).

Baltimore’s ground game was at its punishing best against the Cowboys’ beleaguered defense last week, racking up 274 yards and three touchdowns behind monster efforts from both Henry (25 carries, 151 yards, 2 TDs) and the showstopping Jackson (14 carries, 87 yards, 1 TD).

Henry is averaging just over 5 yards per carry and indeed has been a perfect fit in Baltimore’s zone-heavy blocking scheme, and the Ravens’ decision to have Jackson more involved as a de facto running back again is also paying big dividends. 

Perhaps a conscious effect of the late-year lower-body injuries that prematurely ended their franchise quarterback’s 2021 and 2022 seasons, the Ravens significantly cut back Jackson’s usage as a designed runner in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s first year at the helm in 2023.

Monken and Harbaugh have turned Jackson loose again in 2024, however, and the dangerous dual threat has rewarded their faith with a start putting him on pace to shatter his quarterback-record of 1,206 rushing yards set during his brilliant 2019 season.

The Ravens have called 21 designed runs for Jackson over the first three games and he’s averaged a superlative 8.2 yards per attempt on those plays, likely benefiting from the added attention enemy defenses must pay to Henry.

When adding in his scrambles on passing calls, Jackson has gained 10 or more yards on 25.7% of his rush attempts – by far the highest of any player this season with 25 or more carries (former Raven J.K. Dobbins ranks second at 19.0%).

The Jackson/Henry tandem brings a dynamic that Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had to prepare a whole lot for yet, as it’s faced the fifth-lowest percentage of running plays while playing with a lead over two-thirds of the time (67.4%) during the team’s 3-0 start.

Ravens Player Projections (as of Wednesday)

• Lamar Jackson: 20.6 completions on 31.3 attempts for 242.3 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.4 INTs; 64.3 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing TDs
• Derrick Henry: 16.4 rushes for 79.0 yards with 0.8 TDs
• Zay Flowers: 5.8 receptions for 60.9 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Rashod Bateman: 2.3 receptions for 31.5 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Isaiah Likely: 4.2 receptions for 61.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Mark Andrews: 2.9 receptions for 38.8 yards with 0.2 touchdowns

The Bills have been dynamite defending the pass, having yielded just 5.06 yards per attempt (behind only former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s 3-0 Seahawks for best in the league) and zero completions of 25 or more yards.

Buffalo has shown more of a propensity to giving up big runs, however, as it’s surrendered gains of 10-plus yards on 14.0% of opponent rushing attempts dating back to the start of last season. Only the New York Giants (15.5%) have allowed such plays at a higher rate over that span.

And the Bills are banged-up on defense to boot, particularly at linebacker with 2023 leading tackler Terrel Bernard and 2022 All-Pro Matt Milano currently out with injuries. And their best run stopper from last season, linebacker Tyrel Dodson, is now plying his trade as a key piece of Macdonald’s unit in Seattle.

The Ravens seem set up for more success running the football, while the Bills appear to be in a good spot to effectively throw it. In what looks like a very evenly matched battle of teams with no shortage of both talent and pedigree, the outcome could very well come down to how well each can exploit those perceived advantages.

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