Arsenal vs Leicester City Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

Arsenal are heavy favourites for this match, but can Mikel Arteta’s side get back to winning ways? We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Arsenal vs Leicester City prediction and preview.

Arsenal vs Leicester Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal heavy favourites for this, with the Gunners winning a whopping 75.9% of pre-match simulations.
• Arsenal have not lost at home to a promoted team in 39 such games (W34 D5) since a 1-0 defeat to Newcastle in November 2010.
• Bukayo Saka could become the first ever player to assist a goal in each of his side’s first six games of a campaign in the Premier League.

Arsenal probably don’t want to play another ‘City’ again any time soon after their disappointing ending last time out. Mikel Arteta’s side defended their 2-1 lead at Manchester City resolutely despite being a player down right up until deep into stoppage time, when John Stones found an equaliser for the hosts.

In the cold light of day, a point at Man City is perfectly respectable, but Arsenal will be looking to claim all three when they host Leicester City at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday.

Arteta will have reason to be optimistic, too. Arsenal have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League games against promoted sides, with the only exception being a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest in May 2023, the game that ultimately clinched the title for Man City that season. On home soil, the Gunners are unbeaten in 39 such games (W34 D5) since a 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United in November 2010.

For the first time in the English men’s top flight, as many as six teams remain without a win after five league games, and one of those is Leicester, drawing three and losing two. The only time the Foxes have gone six games without a win to start a Premier League season was in 2022-23, when they were ultimately relegated.

We can probably expect goals in this one, particularly as Leicester have both scored and conceded in all five of their Premier League games this season – only in their title-winning campaign of 2015-16 have they had a longer such run from the start of a campaign in the competition (first 9).

There has been much discussion about Arsenal’s so-called ‘dark arts’ since their draw at Man City. The Gunners have received six cards (4 yellows, 2 second yellows) for either time wasting or not retreating in the Premier League this season, two more than any other club. They received three such cards against City last time out.

The Gunners will be able to welcome Leandro Trossard back though despite his red card at the Etihad Stadium, as the Belgian served his one-match suspension in Wednesday’s 5-1 EFL Cup win over Bolton Wanderers.

Raheem Sterling made his full Arsenal debut in that midweek win against the League One side, recording a goal and an assist, and he may fancy his chances of scoring again on Saturday, having bagged a brace in his last two Premier League games against Leicester – one with Man City (December 2021) and one with Chelsea (August 2022, his first goals for the club). Only three players have scored multiple goals against an opponent in a Premier League match with three different clubs – Robbie Fowler vs Bolton (Liverpool, Leeds, Man City), Darren Bent vs Bolton (Charlton, Tottenham, Sunderland) and Andrew Cole vs West Ham (Newcastle, Man Utd, Man City).

Bukayo Saka surprisingly played 71 minutes of the Bolton game but will likely start again versus Leicester, and he will be hoping to record yet another assist. The England international has more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (5) and could become the first ever player to assist a goal in each of his side’s first six games of a campaign in the competition.

Leicester struggled to put away Walsall in their EFL Cup clash in midweek, having to rely on a penalty shootout to see off their League Two opponents after a 0-0 draw. Manager Steve Cooper has found himself under early pressure in the Leicester dugout, but it will be a big ask for his fortunes to turn around at an in-form Arsenal wanting to put last week’s late disappointment behind them.

Arsenal vs Leicester Head-to-Head

Arsenal have won their last five Premier League games against Leicester City, their joint-longest winning run against the Foxes in their league history (also five between 1908 and 1914 and between 1930 and 1932).

Leicester will certainly have their work cut out at the Emirates, having won just one of their last 26 away league games against Arsenal (D4 L21), with their sole victory in that time being a 1-0 success in October 2020.

Their last clash at the Emirates saw Arsenal win 4-2 in August 2022, with a brace from Gabriel Jesus followed by goals from Granit Xhaka and Gabriel Martinelli for the hosts. Their last meeting came at the King Power Stadium in February 2023 when Martinelli scored the only goal of the game in 1-0 Gunners win.

Arsenal vs Leicester Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is pointing towards an Arsenal victory, with the hosts winning a dominant 75.9% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Leicester pull off an unlikely away victory in just 9.6%, with the draw occurring in the remaining 14.5% of data-led simulations.

As far as the season goes, Arsenal’s performance against Man City showed how close they are to the champions, but the supercomputer still only sees them win the Premier League title in 14.4% of simulations.

Leicester, meanwhile, finish the season in 19th place most often, despite currently sitting in 15th heading into the weekend. They are only given a 39.4% chance of avoiding relegation.

Arsenal vs Leicester Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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