Oklahoma State, others not fully out of Big 12 title race

The thing about college football games is that someone has to lose them. 

When Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy took his No. 20 Cowboys into Manhattan, Kansas on Saturday against the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats, the eyes of the conference were fixed on the outcome. 

With Kansas State having lost on the road the week prior to BYU in dramatic fashion and Oklahoma State falling that same day to preseason conference champion favorite Utah, the loser of this contest would have a nearly impossible journey to the title game at the end of the year without a lot of help.

That’s where we find Oklahoma State, which fell to Kansas State, 42-20. But the Cowboys are far from alone at the bottom of the current Big 12 standings. They share an 0-2 league record with the Baylor Bears, the Kansas Jayhawks and the Houston Cougars. 

To many, the climb to reach the summit that is Arlington, Texas before bowl season seems impossible when a team has already dropped two conference matchups of the nine each Big 12 school faces. Not so fast.

For at least Gundy and the Cowboys, statistically, the worst is behind them beyond a matchup on the road against BYU in a couple weeks and then against Colorado to cap off the regular season in Boulder. In the 2023 schedule, Oklahoma State had losses to Iowa State and UCF in conference play and still faced off against Texas in the Big 12 title game. 

In Week 6, teams with no league losses face tough challenges that could level the playing field for those looking for a quicker path back to the top of the standings, including Texas Tech (2-0 in Big 12 play) playing at Arizona (1-0) or West Virginia (1-0) facing Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

When you acknowledge the parity of the league, the margins for error are closer than ever. Between 2018 and 2023, 46.5% of Big 12 games were decided by a single possession (via ESPN’s Bill Connelly). For examples, look to the Week 5 matchups like No. 22 BYU’s 34-28 win at Baylor that came down to an interception on the Bears’ final drive to close the door or the Cincinnati Bearcats falling to Texas Tech in Lubbock, 44-41.

Week 5’s Arizona at Utah game also represents the unpredictability of the conference. The No. 10 Utes, by many, were expected to finish with an unblemished season. The Arizona Wildcats, however, went on the road to Salt Lake City and took care of business, 23-10. Also, look to UCF hosting Colorado as an almost 14-point favorite at kickoff, only to lose to the Buffaloes at the Bounce House, 48-21. 

While it is going to take winning football combined with some lucky breaks, the season is far from over for resilient teams like Oklahoma State.