What’s at stake in final weekend of 2024 MLB season

The final weekend of the regular season has arrived, and there is plenty at stake.

From a team perspective, there is still a battle for the final Wild Card spots in both leagues and the top teams trying to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage. As enticing as these playoff races are, you can argue that the individual storylines are just as interesting. Look no further than what Shohei Ohtani pulled off last week.

With this in mind, here’s what’s at stake during the final weekend of the season.

1. The (Wild) Wild Card Races

The Wild Card races in both leagues are poised to come down to the wire, especially in the National League. Both the AL and NL have three teams still alive for the final two spots, entering play Friday, but the NL battle between the Braves, D-backs and Mets has the greatest potential to go right down to the wire.

Here is a closer look at how each race breaks down:

Already clinched: Orioles (will be No. 4 seed)
In playoff position: Royals (No. 5 seed), Tigers (No. 6 seed)
Still alive: Twins

Record
– Royals 85-74
– Tigers 85-74
– Twins 82-77 (3 GB)

Remaining schedule
– Royals at ATL (3)
– Tigers vs. CWS (3)
– Twins vs. BAL (3)

Tiebreakers
– The Royals own the tiebreaker over the Tigers.
– The Twins own tiebreakers over the Royals and Tigers.
– If the three teams tie for those final two spots, the Twins would take the No. 5 seed, the Royals would take the No. 6 seed and the Tigers would be out.

What needs to happen?
– The Royals and Tigers both can clinch a postseason berth with one more win or one Twins loss. That can happen as soon as Friday.
– The Twins need to win their final three games and have the Royals and/or Tigers finish 0-3.
–

Already clinched: Padres (currently hold No. 4 seed)
In playoff position: Mets (No. 5 seed), D-backs (No. 6 seed)
Still alive: Braves

Record
– Mets 87-70
– D-backs 88-71
– Braves 86-71 (1 GB)

Remaining schedule
– Mets at MIL (3), at ATL (2)^
– D-backs vs. SD (3)
– Braves vs. KC (3), vs. NYM (2)^

^The final two Mets-Braves games in Atlanta, originally scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, were rained out. They are now set to be played in a doubleheader on Monday.

Tiebreakers
– The Braves and Mets both own tiebreakers over the D-backs.
– The Braves lead their season series against the Mets, 6-5. If Atlanta wins at least one half of Monday’s doubleheader, it will clinch the tiebreaker between the teams. The Mets would need to sweep it.
– If the three teams tie for those final two spots, either the Braves or Mets would claim the No. 5 seed, depending on which club clinches the tiebreaker over the other in Monday’s doubleheader. (That team would then hold tiebreakers over both of its Wild Card competitors.) Either the Mets or Braves would then win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the D-backs for the No. 6 seed.

What needs to happen?
– The Mets cannot be eliminated before Monday. At worst, they will finish Sunday two games behind the Braves, needing a doubleheader sweep to pull into a tie and claim the tiebreaker.
– The Braves could be eliminated before Monday. However, they will remain in contention going into that day’s doubleheader if they 1) Stay within two games of the Mets in the standings, and/or 2) Are no fewer than two wins behind the D-backs. In either scenario, Atlanta would at least have a chance to win twice on Monday to clinch a spot via tiebreaker.
– The D-backs would be eliminated if the Mets and Braves both finish Sunday with at least as many wins as Arizona, which would lose any two- or three-team tiebreaker scenario.
– Even if Arizona is eliminated in that scenario, Monday’s Mets-Braves doubleheader might still be needed to determine which team is the No. 5 seed and which is the No. 6 seed.

Entering September, three teams were vying for the top two spots in each league. With the Orioles and Brewers scuffling in September, however, the top spots have come down to two teams in each league — it’s just a matter of who takes the No. 1 overall spot to secure homefield advantage through the Championship Series and potentially the World Series.

The Dodgers enter play on Friday with a one-game lead over the Phillies, although Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker advantage based on head-to-head record. The Yankees, meanwhile, have a one-game lead over the Guardians and the tiebreaker advantage after going 4-2 against Cleveland.

3. Home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series

Despite Baltimore’s struggles this month, the Orioles are firmly in control of the top AL Wild Card spot. The Padres have embarked on an incredible run that’s placed them well ahead for the first Wild Card spot — they’re 3 games ahead of the Mets and D-backs for that top spot. Both the Orioles and Padres clinched playoff berths Tuesday on the road against their division rivals.

4. Ohtani pushing the HR-SB bar even higher

With three games to go, Ohtani has a chance to continue his otherworldly season and push the limits of what was perceived as possible.

With 53 homers and 56 steals, Ohtani is a lock to finish among MLB’s top two in both categories, something that hasn’t been done in more than a century. Before 2024, the only players to finish among MLB’s top two in home runs and stolen bases were Honus Wagner in 1908 and Ty Cobb in 1909. (But don’t let Ohtani’s brilliance completely overshadow the fact that Cleveland’s José Ramírez is knocking on the 40-40 door, with 38 homers and 40 steals of his own.)

Sale and Skubal are very likely to take home Cy Young Award honors in their respective leagues. There’s also a strong chance that Sale and Skubal become the fourth pair of pitchers to win the pitching Triple Crown — the league leader in ERA, strikeouts and wins — in each league.

If Sale (2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts and 18 wins) and Skubal (2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts and 18 wins) lead their leagues in those categories, they’d join Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander (2011), Walter Johnson and Dazzy Vance (1924) and Johnson and Hippo Vaughn (1918) as the only pairs of pitchers to win the Triple Crown in the same season.

Sale also has a chance to become the first pitcher since Johan Santana in 2006 to lead MLB in all three categories in a full season. (Shane Bieber did it in the shortened 2020 campaign.)

6. Judge, Ohtani also making late Triple Crown bids

MLB hasn’t seen a batting Triple Crown winner — leading the league in homers, RBIs and batting average — since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, but Aaron Judge has an outside shot to do it. And so does Ohtani.

Judge enters Friday leading the AL (and MLB) in homers (58) and RBIs (144) with the third-best batting average (.325).

It’s going to be tough for Judge to catch Bobby Witt Jr. (.332 average) in the race for the AL batting title — he also needs to leapfrog Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is hitting .325 and barely ahead of Judge on further decimals. But it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Even if Judge fails to do so, though, he also has an outside chance to join Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only players with multiple 60-homer seasons.

Ohtani is in a similar position in the NL. With home run (53) and RBI (126) titles well in hand, Ohtani (.305) would need a red-hot final series to catch not only Luis Arraez (.312) but also Marcell Ozuna (.310) for his first batting title.

7. Saves and ERA history for Clase

Emmanuel Clase had already established himself as one of the top relievers in the sport, but what he’s doing this year is nearly unprecedented. Clase has a microscopic 0.61 ERA across 73 1/3 innings and 73 appearances, putting him on track to do something four pitchers have done. If Clase’s ERA sticks, he’d become the fifth pitcher with an ERA of 0.75 or lower in 50 or more innings, joining Zack Britton (2016), Fernando Rodney (2012), Dennis Eckersley (1990) and Rob Murphy (1986).

That’s not the only exclusive company that Clase could join. After leading the Majors in saves in 2022 (42) and ‘23 (44), Clase (47 saves) is only one behind Ryan Helsley for the MLB lead this year. If Clase can pull ahead, he’ll become the first pitcher to lead the Majors in saves in three straight seasons since the stat became official in 1969.

8. The 2024 White Sox vs. the 1962 Mets

The White Sox needed to win their final six games of the season to avoid surpassing those 1962 Mets, and remarkably, they’re halfway there, having swept the Angels to improve to 39-120. To avoid setting a new record with 121 losses or more, the White Sox must also sweep the Tigers in both teams’ final series of the season. If they do so, it would be the team’s first six-game winning streak since May 2022. If they don’t, then they will stand alone for the most losses in a single season dating back to 1900.

9. Can Judge join Ohtani in reaching 400 total bases?

Ohtani is on pace to make even more history, believe it or not. Along with his 50-50 season, Ohtani reached 400 total bases on the season on Thursday night against the Padres – something that hadn’t happened since Sammy Sosa (425), Luis Gonzalez (419), Barry Bonds (411) and Todd Helton (402) each accomplished the feat in 2001.

Ohtani’s surge to the top of the total bases leaderboard was fueled in no small part by his historic 6-for-6 day against the Marlins on Sept. 19. It got another boost on Sunday, when Ohtani collected four hits, including a game-tying home run in the ninth inning, before he finished the job in a division-clinching win over San Diego.

As for Judge, he was on pace for 400 total bases for much of the season, but has trailed off in recent weeks and is now a toss-up to reach the milestone. Entering Friday, Judge has 392 total bases and is on pace for 399. A strong season-ending series against the Pirates would get him there, and we’ve seen enough from him to know that a sudden power surge could happen at any time. Should Judge get there, it would be the first season of 400 total bases in the AL since Jim Rice in 1978.

It takes a really special season to reach 400 total bases, which is why it had only happened eight times since 1960 before this year. It requires a strong mix of high average and exceptional extra-base-hit ability. But even then, there are no guarantees. A few mini-slumps over the course of 162 games can sink a hitter’s chances.

But if Judge finishes strong, each league will see a player get to 400 total bases — which would be the perfect conclusion to their already rock-solid MVP cases.

10. Luis Arraez’s chase of a batting title with a third team, which has never happened before

Arraez has already made history by becoming the first player to win American League and National League batting titles in consecutive seasons. But the Padres star now has the chance to do something even more stunning. Leading the NL in batting at .312 in 2024, two points ahead of the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna, Arraez has an excellent shot at winning his third batting title in three years — all with different teams!

That’s never happened before, as Arraez is just the eighth player to even win batting titles with two teams. Trades sending him from the Twins to the Marlins to the Padres have given him the chance for a third straight batting crown with another club, and Arraez has made the most of his opportunity. The 2022 AL and 2023 NL batting champion didn’t hit .400 well into May like he did last year with Miami, but Arraez has been consistently productive at the plate (and quite hard to strike out, too). Barring a late charge from Ozuna, more history awaits Arraez and San Diego later this week.