Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Paris

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight finishers Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen will go to war this weekend (Sat., Sept. 28, 2024) at UFC Paris inside Accor Arena in Paris, France.

These men are the two dark horses at 185 pounds. While all the title talk attention lies with hot-shot prospect, Khamzat Chimaev, or former champions like Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland, Imavov and Allen are winning fights. Indeed, Imavov is 29 years old, has won two in a row, and recently advanced into the Top 5. Allen, meanwhile, has impressively won seven consecutive bouts, scoring finishes more often than not. He’s broken into the Top 10 already, and one more win for the 28-year-old should really break him into the immediate title mix.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Imavov vs Allen Betting Odds

• Nassourdine Imavov victory: -220
• Nassourdine Imavov via TKO/KO/DQ: +200
• Nassourdine Imavov via submission: +1000
• Nassourdine Imavov via decision: +165
• Brendan Allen victory: +180
• Brendan Allen via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
• Brendan Allen via submission: +600
• Brendan Allen via decision: +350
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Imavov Wins

Now that Israel Adesanya is slowing down, Imavov is perhaps Middleweight’s sharpest range striker. His jab is his best weapon, but the French standout really builds from the strike well, timing powerful connections and walking his opponents into big shots. Historically, cardio has been a concern, but Imavov has looked sharp in consecutive five-round fights.

In this match up, I’d like to see Imavov press his boxing advantage. Between the two, Allen is more the specialist, whereas Imavov has a go-to game plan for every fight. If Imavov can convince Allen to trade with him, that comfort and his hand speed advantage should combine to produce significant results.

Generally, Imavov likes to box at distance, but Allen is too powerful a kicker to let him dictate the space. Instead, Imavov should be looking to double and triple the jab to close range a bit before firing his right hand. Allen has a habit of running himself into the fence, trying to trade, then getting clobbered, and that’s something an athlete like Imavov should be able to capitalize upon.

How Allen Wins

Of the Middleweight up-and-comers, Allen might be the most rounded. Just on the feet, he’s a nasty kicker with power in his hands and a sneaky clinch game. Then, he’s a very solid wrestler with a penchant for snatching up rear naked chokes suddenly, a strangle which accounts for six of his UFC wins.

I’d like to see Allen offensive on all fronts. He should be kicking when Imavov goes to jab, and crowding him with knees, elbows, and takedown attempts when Imavov wants to throw combinations in the pocket. Oh, and if gets Imavov in a bad spot along the fence, Allen can definitely throw hands with his opponent — he’s far from helpless in that range.

We have seen Imavov struggle with being controlled in several fights, even in some of his victories. Allen is more dangerous on the canvas than most of Imavov’s past opponents, so that could be a viable path to victory. It only takes one takedown, trip, or off-balance for Allen to jump the back, and he’s more than a proven finisher there.

Ultimately, Allen gives himself the best chance at an upset by mixing up all his tools and denying Imavov a boxing match.

Imavov vs. Allen Prediction

The path to victory for Imavov is more consistent and clear.

I can see Allen winning this fight, certainly. He could catch Imavov with a big shot or sneak onto his back at some point. The problem is that it feels like he has to win via finish. His defense remains too much of a liability, particularly against an accurate and fast puncher like Imavov. The French talent’s jab is not going to miss very often, and once he lines up the range finder, the heavy blows follow soon afterward. Both men have flaws, but Imavov enters this fight better equipped to capitalize on his opponent’s issues than the opposite.

The jab wins the day, controls the distance, and eventually sets up a right hand finish.

Prediction: Imavov via knockout (+200)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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