First look at Lynx-Sun WNBA semifinal series suggests a good one

Minnesota and Connecticut completed the third and fourth quarterfinal series sweeps of the WNBA playoff with home victories Wednesday, the Lynx bouncing Phoenix and the Sun downing Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever.

No team seeded No. 5-8 won a single game this postseason, as the top four squads all season flexed their collective muscle.

Now is when the fun starts.

On one side, Las Vegas and New York square off in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, won by the Aces. On the other, it’s the Lynx (30-10) against the Sun (28-12), two lesser-heralded but no less dominant teams this season.

And there’s history here, as well. Connecticut has ended Minnesota’s season each of the past two years. Connecticut beat Minnesota on the final day of the regular season in 2022 to officially end the Lynx’s playoff chances and, thus, Sylvia Fowles’ career. Last season, Minnesota upset Connecticut in Game 2 of the first-round series, only to have the Sun blitz the Lynx at Target Center in a decisive Game 3 that was truly competitive.

But this time figures to be different. The stats say the matchup between the Lynx and Sun is razor thin — as do the three games the two teams played this season.

THE STATS

Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions)

Minnesota: 102.8

Connecticut: 102.3

Defensive rating

Minnesota: 94.8

Connecticut: 94.1

Net rating

Minnesota: 8.0

Connecticut: 8.1

Connecticut is the better rebounding team, but Minnesota shares and shoots the ball at a higher clip. The pacing numbers between the two squads are strikingly similar. Perhaps that’s why each of their three regular-season meetings went down to the wire.

SEASON MATCHUPS

May 23 in Connecticut: Connecticut 83, Minnesota 82, OT

The skinny: Neither team led by more than five points over the final 22-plus minutes of action. Napheesa Collier scored 31 points, including a bucket in the closing seconds to send the game to an extra session.

Minnesota led by five with 100 seconds to play in overtime, only to have the Sun scratch back. A Kayla McBride jumper put the Lynx back in front with 13 seconds remaining, but DeWanna Bonner drew a foul and cashed in a pair of free throws with seven seconds remaining to put the Sun up one, then McBride missed a potential game-winner at the horn.

The rest of the Lynx players combined to go 1 for 13 shooting from 3-point range, and Minnesota went 12 for 20 from the free-throw line while Connecticut’s Big 3 of Bonner, Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones combined for 57 points.

July 4 in Minnesota: Connecticut 78, Minnesota 73

The skinny: Minnesota trailed by two late in the third quarter when Collier had to leave because of a plantar fasciitis aggravation. Without their star player, the Lynx went more than five and a half minutes of the fourth quarter without a point.

The Lynx shot 52 percent from deep (13 for 25) in the defeat but were doomed by 18 turnovers and a minus-7 in the rebounding category. Bonner led Connecticut with 24 points, while Thomas tallied a triple-double with 13 points, 10 rebounds and a whopping 14 assists.

Sept. 17 in Connecticut: Minnesota 78, Connecticut 76

The skinny: Trailing by one point after Bonner put the Sun in front with eight ticks to play, Collier kicked out to Bridget Carleton, who buried a deep three-pointer to lock down the No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in this series.

The Lynx forced a turnover on the ensuing Sun inbounds pass to officially end the duel.

Collier led the way with 25 points, to go with four blocks and two steals. Thomas had 18 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds for the Sun.

The team numbers were nearly identical across the board in the game, but Minnesota committed three fewer turnovers (13) than Connecticut (16). In a best-of-five series between these teams, something as small as that can prove to be the difference.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE

Game 1: Connecticut at Lynx, 7:30 p.m. Sunday, ESPN

Game 2: Connecticut at Lynx, Tuesday, TBD

Game 3: Lynx at Connecticut, 6:30 p.m. Oct. 4, ESPN2

Game 4*: Lynx at Connecticut, Oct. 6, TBD

Game 5* Connecticut at Lynx, TBD Oct. 8, ESPN2

*If necessary

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