Eckert Stats: The Impact Of Explosive Plays To Scoring Drives Through Week 3

Today, I wanted to look at explosive plays (20 or more yards), and their impact to scoring so far in 2024. In this article, I’ll provide total explosive plays and touchdowns for offenses and defenses, then zoom in on explosive play rates on touchdown drives to date.

First, here are NFL offenses’ total explosive plays and total touchdowns through Week 3:

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense lands on the bottom left through three games. Namely, tying for the least total touchdowns with three, along with three other teams (Denver, Miami, and New England). Each of them are 1-2 this season, compared to Pittsburgh’s undefeated record.

The bright side for Pittsburgh is an uptick in touchdowns each game: none in Week 1, one in Week 2, and two end zone trips last week. That upward trajectory will hopefully continue as the offense continues to jel, especially staying away from zero burgers in the scoring department optimistically.

Explosive plays have also been below league average but closer to the mean currently with eight. This ties for 21st with the Chiefs, Bucs, and Dolphins. Among some quality teams, too, and better than Pittsburgh’s offense has been the past couple seasons. But there’s clearly room to improve.

We also see teams that fare well in both, including the Steelers’ next opponent. The Indianapolis Colts offense has 12 explosive plays and eight total touchdowns, each tying for sixth-best currently. Quite a difference, with game circumstance and the ultimate goal of winning lacking (1-2 record) compared to Pittsburgh.

The other unbeaten teams currently are Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota. As you might expect, the whole group has an above-average total touchdowns, while Pittsburgh is the outlier due to their stellar defense (more on this to come).

Interestingly, explosive plays for 3-0 teams have been more average to date, with four teams below the league mean, and Minnesota the only one above average (slightly) with 10 explosives. Of course, the scoring matters most, and I can’t wait to see how this progresses.

With quantity context laid out, let’s look at explosive touchdown drives. Here are the rates of explosive plays in explosive TD drives, and explosive plays that were touchdowns:

This deeper dive reveals some teams that have made the most of their explosive plays on offense. Looking at the top right, we see every unbeaten team besides Pittsburgh. Seattle has the highest “explosives turned into touchdown” rate, with five of their seven explosive plays getting to the end zone. Wow.

Six of the top seven teams in explosives in explosive TD drives rate have a winning record. The team that has a losing record is Atlanta (one of their losses to Pittsburgh), and one difference for the Falcons being below the mean in explosive play touchdowns.

While total explosive play numbers seem low and have more mixed results in terms of success, we see these quality components of explosive plays have been very impactful to the goal of winning.

On the other side of the coin, the Steelers’ offense is below-average in both. Their 25 explosives in explosive play TD drives ties for 29th, while a 12.5 explosives that were TDs rate ties for a better 21st. So, the latter has helped them do just enough to defy the odds in wins, and need to capitalize more getting to the end zone following an explosive plays.

The Steelers’ dominant defense has of course been the main catalyst for their 3-0 record. Let’s see how they’ve stacked up in the same terms among NFL defenses through Week 3:

Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh’s defense lands comfortably above the mean in both. Their league-leading points allowed per game (8.7) is well-documented, the only team to allow only two touchdowns through three games.

The other four unbeaten teams have also limited touchdowns at an above-average rate as expected, with Minnesota being the only one to land below the mean in explosive plays allowed (slightly) with ten.

The Steelers have allowed six explosive plays, tying for 11th with the Seahawks. The only teams with fewer are Denver (four), Atlanta (five), and Cincinnati (five). All have losing records, perhaps suggesting game circumstance for opposing offenses not requiring huge chunk plays in this small of a sample size.

Now let’s wrap up with defenses explosive play touchdown drive rates:

For starters, some interesting results for Pittsburgh. Their better mark was a 33.3 explosives in explosive TD drives rate, tying for sixth-best with the Saints (2-1) and Giants (1-2). Teams that fared better were the Seahawks, Colts, Bills, Chargers, and Vikings. Each have winning records except for Indianapolis. They were above-average in every aspect of today’s article, pointing to a huge challenge they present Pittsburgh this Sunday despite their current standings.

Where the Steelers were lower on defense was allowing explosive play touchdowns. Of their six explosive plays allowed, one of them went for a touchdown. That makes for a 16.67 explosives that were TDs rate, tying for a more average 16th rank. As the sample size grows with more games, here’s to hoping that can improve to match their more dominant stats in 2024 so far.

We can clearly see the impact of explosive plays on team results, with the quality over quantity mantra holding extremely true. You better be strong on at least one side of the ball, with Pittsburgh’s defense of course being the hero. If the offense can move up to a more average unit to pair with their impressive defense, look out. Here’s to hoping that’s the case moving forward.