2024 NL Wild Card race scenarios

But Sunday should clear a lot of things up. The Mets meet the Brewers (3:10 p.m. ET), the D-backs host the Padres (3:10 p.m. ET), and the Braves host the Royals (3:20 p.m. ET) on what will be a significant day of baseball. While the Braves and Mets can’t be eliminated — in fact, both clubs can clinch Wild Card berths on Sunday — the D-backs could see their postseason hopes disappear if things break the wrong way for them.

Entering the day, Atlanta holds a one-game lead over New York and Arizona, who are in a virtual tie for the third Wild Card position (the D-backs have played two more games than the Mets, whose games Wednesday and Thursday in Atlanta were postponed until Monday). With a slightly higher winning percentage (.5472 vs. 5466) and the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Mets currently hold the No. 6 spot. The Braves also hold a tiebreaker over the D-backs, while the winner of the final series between New York and Atlanta will determine the tiebreaker between the two NL East rivals.

Before we get to the nitty gritty of the eight scenarios, here’s the main thing to know for each club heading into Sunday.

With that in mind, let’s see how Sunday will impact the teams fighting to join the Padres in the NL Wild Card field, breaking down all eight possible scenarios.

Scenario: All three teams win
Result: Braves clinch Wild Card spot; Mets would need one win in Monday’s doubleheader at ATL; D-backs would need Mets to lose both of those games

Scenario: Braves win; Mets lose; D-backs win
Result: Braves clinch Wild Card spot; Mets would need to sweep Monday’s doubleheader at ATL; D-backs would need Mets to lose at least one of those two games

Scenario: Braves win; Mets and D-backs lose
Result: Braves clinch Wild Card spot; Mets would need one win in Monday’s doubleheader at ATL; D-backs would need Mets to lose both of those games

Scenario: Braves lose; Mets and D-backs win
Result: Braves would need one win in Monday’s doubleheader vs. NYM; Mets would need one win in doubleheader; D-backs would need either ATL or NYM to win both games of doubleheader

Scenario: Braves and Mets lose; D-backs win
Result: Braves would need one win in Monday’s doubleheader vs. NYM; Mets would need to sweep doubleheader; D-backs clinch Wild Card spot

Scenario: Braves and Mets win; D-backs lose
Result: Braves, Mets clinch Wild Card spots; D-backs eliminated

Scenario: Braves lose; Mets win; D-backs lose
Result: Braves, Mets clinch Wild Card spots; D-backs eliminated

Scenario: All three teams lose
Result: Braves clinch Wild Card spot; Mets would need one win in Monday’s doubleheader at ATL; D-backs would need Mets to lose both of those games